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Weekly Review
This week, from July 15 to July 22, the highest price of Sugar Orange was around $68,474 and the lowest was close to $60,632, with a fluctuation range of about 12.9%.
Observing the chip distribution chart, there are a large number of chip transactions around 65,000, which will have certain support or pressure.
analyze:
59000-63000: about 1.33 million pieces;
64000-68000: about 1.17 million pieces;
The probability of not falling below 57,000-61,000 in the short term is 82%;
The probability that it will not rise below 71,000-74,000 in the short term is 67%.
Important news
Economic News
The ECB's interest rate decision will maintain the three major interest rates unchanged at 4.25%, 3.75% and 4.5% respectively.
Among them, the main refinancing rate was 4.25%, expected to be 4.25%, and the previous value was 4.25%.
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said: There will be more information in the coming weeks and months, it will be a busy summer, and what to do in September is completely open. There is no preset interest rate path, and the door to (rate cut) in September is open.
UBS, HSBC, Deutsche Bank, Bank of America and others believe that the ECB will cut interest rates in September.
Economist Stefan Gerlach said that since the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates in September, the European Central Bank will do the same, and it is expected that the European Central Bank will cut interest rates again in December or January next year.
Bank of America said: It is expected that the European Central Bank will cut interest rates by 75 basis points in total in 2024, with one cut each in September and December, and a total of five cuts in 2025.
The Federal Reserve has entered a quiet period before its July 30 interest rate meeting. It is expected that the new monetary policy statement at the July meeting may change the description of the economy and outlook, laying the foundation for a rate cut in September.
On Wednesday, Fed Governor Waller said interest rates would be cut in the "near future." Ahead of the upcoming July policy meeting, Fed members believe that inflation is likely to continue to slow, and if inflation slows, a rate cut would be appropriate.
Investors are looking ahead to the Federal Reserve's September meeting, when the central bank is expected to start cutting interest rates, which Fed Governor Jerome Powell said would mark a "significant" shift in monetary policy from a tightening cycle to fight inflation to an easing phase.
Ahead of their upcoming July policy meeting, Fed members believed inflation was likely to continue to slow and that a rate cut would be appropriate if it did.
Encrypted ecological news
The results of the Reddit survey show that about 260 MtGox creditors (56% of the 467 survey participants) plan to continue holding BTC after receiving compensation, and 88 creditors (about 20% of all survey members) said they will sell all the BTC paid. This survey may reflect the overall sentiment of MtGox creditors.
Media reports said the first spot ETH ETF may be launched next Tuesday (July 23).
As issuers have successively submitted S-1/A and other documents for spot ETH ETFs to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the fees of the nine spot ETH ETFs have been announced. The fee of BlackRock's spot ETH ETF is 0.25% (0.12% for the first US$2.5 billion or the first 12 months).
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan said that the price of ETH is expected to fluctuate in the first few weeks after the ETH ETF goes online, as funds may flow out of the trust after the $11 billion Grayscale ETH Trust is converted into a spot ETF. He believes that the price of ETH will exceed $5,000 by the end of the year and set a record high.
Citi reported that the net inflows of ETH spot ETFs in the first six months ranged from US$4.7 billion to US$5.4 billion.
Long-term insights: used to observe our long-term situation; bull market/bear market/structural change/neutral state
Mid-term exploration: used to analyze what stage we are currently in, how long this stage will last, and what situations we will face
Short-term observation: used to analyze short-term market conditions; the possibility of certain directions and certain events occurring under certain conditions
Long-term insights
US Crypto ETF Wallet Net Positions
Large net positions on exchanges
Profitability of long-term and short-term participants
(Figure below shows the net position of US crypto ETF wallets)
Judging from the total number of ETF wallets, there is still a positive premium, and people are still buying over-the-counter ETFs.
(The following figure shows large net positions on exchanges)
Large net positions on the exchange began to show outflows, which is a relatively good concept, indicating that large participants began to buy continuously.
The market's purchasing power is gradually recovering.
(The figure below shows the profit levels of long-term and short-term participants)
A 250% profit for long-term players indicates that the market's periodic pressure may be between 695,00 and 70,000, and market risks should be watched around this price level.
The market will generally hesitate and slump near the stage price, and it will accumulate enough energy to achieve a sustained breakthrough.
Mid-term exploration
Price Level Structure Analysis Model
Liquidity Supply
Incremental Model
Positive sentiment on the Internet
(Figure below: Price level structure analysis model)
Regarding the upper and lower limits of the market, general market laws apply when the market is determined by liquidity.
The upper and lower limits of the market are calculated through short-term costs, which are around 91,000 and 49,000 respectively.
At this time, the market will be in a liquidity channel, strongly correlated with supply and demand.
Likewise, when the market is in an incremental trend, the upper limit may be broken.
If the market is in a leveraged liquidation, a bad cycle, or a crisis such as a black swan occurs in the market, the lower limit may be broken.
When the market breaks the lower limit, holders who have held for 3-5 years may be in a relatively cost-effective position to increase their holdings.
When the upper limit is broken, you may want to consider selling the portion.
(Figure below shows liquidity supply)
The liquidity supply has increased slightly, and it has increased again on the previous basis.
Possibly, continuous liquidity injection will raise the market ceiling and make upward movement smooth.
(Incremental model below)
Perhaps the current problem in the market is that the overall trend of short-term participants is unclear.
However, the increase in the supply of stablecoins is also providing the market with a good upward foundation.
(Figure below: Network sentiment positivity)
This model is used for trend tracking and can provide early performance during market fluctuations or adjustments.
As time goes by, there is still a good trend at present, and it is possible that the trend will not subside in the short term.
Short-term observation
Derivatives Risk Factor
Option intention transaction ratio
Derivatives Trading Volume
Option Implied Volatility
Profit and loss transfer
New addresses and active addresses
Net Position of Bingtang Orange Exchange
Net position of the Auntie Exchange
High-weight selling pressure
Global purchasing power status
Stablecoin exchange net positions
Off-chain exchange data
Derivatives Rating: The risk factor is in the red zone. Derivatives risk is increasing.
(The figure below shows the risk factor of derivatives)
The risk factor fell back to the red zone from the neutral zone last week, and the expected probability of short squeeze was low. Judging from the risk factor alone, there is still room for short squeeze this week.
(The figure below shows the option intention transaction ratio)
Options trading volume has dropped significantly and the put option ratio is at a low level.
(Figure below shows derivatives trading volume)
Derivatives trading volumes were at low levels.
(The figure below shows the implied volatility of options)
There has been a massive increase in implied volatility.
Emotional state rating: Neutral
(The following figure shows the amount of profit and loss transfer)
Last week, as the market squeezed, positive sentiment (blue line) also increased, and panic sentiment (orange line) continued to decline. At present, combined with the risk factor, the blue line needs to continue to increase in order to break through the existing price resistance range.
(Figure below shows newly added addresses and active addresses)
New and active addresses are at low levels.
Spot and selling pressure structure rating: BTC has a large amount of accumulated inflows, and ETH has accumulated outflows.
(Figure below: Net position of Bingtang Orange Exchange)
There is a large amount of inflow accumulation in the net position of BTC exchanges, and only a small amount of the inflow chips are currently being digested. We need to pay attention to these potential selling pressures this week.
(The following figure shows the net position of E-Tai Exchange)
ETH exchange net positions are in an outflow accumulation state.
(Figure below shows high-weight selling pressure)
There is no high-weight selling pressure at present.
Purchasing power rating: Global purchasing power has recovered slightly, and the purchasing power of stablecoins has increased significantly.
(Figure below shows the global purchasing power status)
After several weeks of loss of purchasing power, the purchasing power of the Americas, which has the highest weight this week, has turned positive, while purchasing power in Asia and Europe is still losing power.
(The following figure shows the net position of USDC exchanges)
USDC has seen a large inflow this week.
Off-chain transaction data rating: There is a willingness to buy at 64,000; there is a willingness to sell at 70,000.
(The following figure shows Coinbase off-chain data)
There is a willingness to buy at a price around 60,000~64,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 70,000.
(Binance off-chain data in the figure below)
There is a willingness to buy at a price around 60,000~64,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 70,000.
(Bitfinex off-chain data in the figure below)
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 70,000.
This week’s summary:
Summary of news:
Currently, the MtGox compensation is still in the headwind, and it is expected to be paid at the end of July and early August. According to the survey, about 20% of people are willing to sell all BTC immediately.
After the negative news came into effect, the US and European central banks began to prepare for monetary easing/interest rate cuts, and BTC spot ETFs from traditional markets continued to flow in, which was a good boost to BTC.
Pay attention to the inflation data from July to August, which will determine the probability of a rate cut in September.
On-chain long-term insights:
The market’s ETFs are still positive in terms of net positions, and U.S. crypto participants are still willing to buy;
Large positions on exchanges gradually turned to outflows, and buying intentions began to increase;
Based on the 250% profit position of the long players, the market may generate some pressure between 69,500-70,000.
Market setting:
Emotions ease and willingness to buy increases.
On-chain mid-term exploration:
The fundamental upper and lower limits of the market are 49,000-91,000;
There was a small increase in liquidity;
The supply of stablecoins has increased, and the movements of short-term participants are unclear;
It is still in trending state.
Market setting:
Ease
The movements of short-term participants are unclear, and the supply of stablecoins has increased, so the recent trend performance may have a certain amplitude.
On-chain short-term observations:
The risk factor is in the red zone and the risk is increasing.
The number of newly added active addresses is relatively low.
Market sentiment status rating: Neutral.
The overall net position of the exchange shows that there is a large accumulation of BTC inflows and ETH outflows.
Global purchasing power has recovered slightly, and the purchasing power of stablecoins has increased significantly.
Off-chain transaction data shows that there is a willingness to buy at 64,000 and a willingness to sell at 70,000.
The probability that it will not fall below 57,000-61,000 in the short term is 82%; the probability that it will not rise below 71,000-74,000 in the short term is 67%.
Market setting:
Market purchasing power and positive sentiment have both rebounded, and there is still room for short squeeze, but we must also pay attention to potential selling pressure. In addition, there are still news impacts such as ETF and BTC conferences this week. From a short-term perspective, the market is expected to only pay attention to a small correction after the short squeeze this week.
risk warning:
The above are all market discussions and explorations and do not provide any directional opinions on investment; please be cautious about and prevent market black swan risks.
This report is provided by the "WTR" Research Institute.
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