The Wall Street Journal reported that Mark Spitznagel, founder of tail risk hedge fund Universa Investments, was once the chief trader under Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of "The Black Swan Effect."

Mark Spitznagel's strategy usually loses money every day because he uses complex strategies and can only make disaster fortunes during periods of extreme volatility. For example, the 2008 financial tsunami, the 2015 flash crash, and the stock market crash caused by the 2020 coronavirus pandemic were enough to make his trading performance beat the traditional investment portfolio of six stocks and four bonds.

The biggest bubble in the history of the U.S. stock market is on the verge of bursting. After the Fed cuts interest rates, the U.S. stock market will be cut in half

Now, Mark Spitznagel has warned in an interview that the U.S. stock market is facing a very bad situation and a huge selling pressure is coming, which may cause the market value of U.S. stocks to evaporate by more than half.

The U.S. stock market seems calm at the moment and is still near its historical highs. Mark Spitznagel believes that the rally will continue for several months or even get crazier because the market is in the perfect "Goldilocks stage", with inflation slowing and the Federal Reserve expected to cut interest rates, which will push investors to be further bullish. However, interest rate cuts are often a signal of a major reversal in market conditions. Another warning is that the voices that are bearish on the market outlook have almost disappeared.

Mike Wilson, a well-known short seller and Morgan Stanley strategist, turned from short to long in May. Marko Kolanovic, a strategist at JPMorgan Chase who had been pessimistic during the AI ​​boom, recently lost his job. Other fund managers who did not buy AI stocks such as Nvidia are regretting it. These situations are similar to the Internet bubble. Charles Clough, a Merrill Lynch strategist who was bearish on US stocks, left his job in 1999, and the S&P 500 index peaked and fell a few months later.

Mark Spitznagel predicts that the future decline in U.S. stocks will be more severe than 25 years ago. This is "the biggest bubble in human history." High public debt and valuations make Washington's rescue operations more difficult to implement. He believes that current inflation will slow down excessively and the U.S. economy may enter a recession before the end of the year.

"If you are still underwater and can't see the market trend clearly, if you are bullish, it will fall, if you are bearish, it will rise. Follow my homepage and I will share the profit code for free every day."

Can Bitcoin still be traded in China?

1. Current Status of Bitcoin Transactions in China

1. Closure of domestic exchanges

After the policy was released, domestic Bitcoin exchanges closed or moved overseas. For example, Huobi and OKCoin, once the largest Bitcoin trading platforms in China, moved their businesses overseas and continued to provide services to Chinese users through overseas platforms.

2. The rise of over-the-counter trading

Despite the strict policies, the demand for Bitcoin transactions still exists. As a result, over-the-counter (OTC) transactions have gradually become the main trading method. Through payment tools such as WeChat and Alipay, investors can buy and sell Bitcoin on OTC platforms. Although this trading method is convenient, it also has certain risks, and the security and legality of the transaction are difficult to guarantee.

3. Development of blockchain technology

Although Bitcoin transactions are restricted, the Chinese government has a positive attitude towards the development of blockchain technology. Many local governments have introduced policies to support the research and application of blockchain technology. Therefore, although Bitcoin transactions are restricted, the development prospects of blockchain technology in China are broad.

2. Investor’s choice: How to trade Bitcoin in China?

1. Choose an overseas trading platform

Many domestic investors choose to register accounts overseas and use tools such as VPN to access internationally renowned trading platforms such as Binance and Coinbase. These platforms provide comprehensive trading services and high security, but require investors to have certain technical capabilities.

2. Participate in OTC transactions

OTC trading platforms provide convenience for Chinese investors, but the trading risks are relatively high. Investors should choose OTC platforms with good reputations and pay attention to security issues during the transaction process to avoid financial losses due to being deceived.

3. Consider compliance

Investors should always pay attention to the country's laws and regulations when trading Bitcoin. Compliance operations can not only protect their own interests, but also avoid legal risks. It is recommended to consult professional legal professionals before investing.

Despite changes in China’s bitcoin trading environment, there are still multiple ways for investors to participate in the bitcoin market.

Whether choosing an overseas platform or conducting over-the-counter transactions, you need to pay attention to the security and compliance of the transaction.