In the past week, the market has started to rebound strongly. Will this rebound become a reversal? Recently, the US economic data has gradually weakened, and the voice of interest rate cuts has gradually increased. Several Fed officials have hinted that interest rate cuts are approaching, but the specific time has not been determined. Ethereum spot ETFs may allow staking, Bitcoin is in high spirits, testing the 65,000 mark upward, and some altcoins have outperformed the market. We believe that Bitcoin has broken away from the valuation floor and may be adversely affected by the downward trend of US stocks in the next step.
Macro environment
Trump's approval rating rises after assassination
Former US President Donald Trump was shot by a man at a rally to promote the presidential election at the end of the year, bringing him one step closer to the presidency.
Source: The Economist
In recent years, Trump has continuously supported the crypto market and threatened that other countries, especially China, should not be allowed to take over cryptocurrencies. This has led to greater expectations in the market for a looser regulatory environment in the U.S. crypto market, and the market is also looking forward to whether China will have further regulatory relaxation policies.
The U.S. economy is waiting to turn around
The U.S. economy is waiting for direction. According to estimates from the Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now model on July 10, the U.S. GDP is expected to be 2.0% in the second quarter at an annualized rate. On the one hand, the U.S. economy continues to expand, and the GDP growth rate is still close to the potential growth rate. In particular, investment plays a significant role in driving economic growth. On the other hand, with the exhaustion of excess savings of American households and the inhibitory effect of high interest rates on consumption, the strong pull of consumption on the economy has obviously tended to weaken. Taken together, the U.S. economy is waiting for direction, but the signals of cooling are getting stronger.
Market status and future trends
This week, the market has been strong due to the reduction of selling pressure. The price trend of Bitcoin (BTC) is very strong, and the altcoin market has also strengthened. On July 23, the Ethereum spot ETF may be launched, and the short-term market sentiment has been supported. The Bitcoin panic and greed index has turned to greed.
Source: Coinglass
Bitcoin's recent trend is similar to that of the Nasdaq index, regaining its relatively strong performance. As our magazine said last week, after the selling pressure eased, there was a rapid rise in the short term. However, before the future interest rate cut, the US stock market may fall and bring the market crash, so we should focus on the trend of the US stock market.
Source: Nasdaq official website
High-quality track
1) AI sector
Hot topic: WLD postpones unlocking schedule
According to the Worldcoin Foundation, the WLD tokens allocated to Worldcoin contributor Tools for Humanity were originally scheduled to be unlocked daily in a linear manner starting on July 24, 2024. However, TFH extended the unlocking schedule for 80% of the WLD held by team members and investors from 3 years to 5 years.
Reasons for rebound:
The AI sector experienced a round of oversell in the early stage. As BTC and market sentiment warmed up, WLD’s rapid rebound promoted the continued recovery of the track, driving mainstream currencies such as TAO and NEAR to continue to strengthen.
2) Meme Track
Hot topic: Ethereum spot ETF is about to be approved
The market believes that the ETH spot ETF may be approved by the SEC on July 23, and that currently ambushing in the Ethereum ecosystem may yield significant gains.
Specific currency list:
Etherfi: Etherfi’s second season airdrop has been launched. Please check the website. The third season will last from July 1 to September 14, and 25 million ETHFI will be distributed.
PEPE: Currently, it is the most popular Meme coin in the ETH ecosystem. It has a very strong community foundation and can be continuously watched as a big BETA of ETH.
User attention
1) Popular Tokens on Twitter
$VANCE
Vance was once a fierce critic of Trump, but later turned to support the Republican leader. He formally accepted the vice presidential nomination at the 2024 Republican National Convention and expressed his loyalty to Trump. He was originally famous for his book "Hillbilly Elegy", which was later adapted into a movie. The book describes his experience growing up in a poor mountain area and his insights into American social and economic problems.
Additionally, Vance is considered a politician who supports cryptocurrency. Although his most recent financial disclosure does not disclose the purchase or sale of any cryptocurrency, in 2022, he disclosed holdings of Bitcoin worth between $100,000 and $250,000.
$ETHFI
The ether.fi Foundation announced that it has written a description of current and future features to enhance the utility, market dynamics and user engagement of the ETHFI token. In addition, the ether.fi Foundation announced on X that Season 2 ETHFI claims are now live.
Ether.Fi allows participants to stake while retaining control of their private keys. Users’ deposits are re-staked locally, using Eigenlayer to support external systems (such as Rollups and oracles), thereby increasing the returns of ETH stakers.
2) Popular DApps
Meet 48
Meet 48 Metaverse is a unique virtual idol creation platform that integrates AI data models, dance choreography, idol song generation, and personalized virtual idol characters. Users can use AI tools to create UGC content and export it to the platform for rewards. In addition, MEET 48 is also a social metaverse driven by Web3 and AI technology, containing music, song, and dance elements. Here, users can interact with real idols, meet like-minded friends, create their own Avatar, and cultivate it into a highly anticipated superstar.
Summarize
The market has rebounded strongly over the past week, with Bitcoin and Ethereum in particular showing significant upward momentum. As U.S. economic data cools and calls for interest rate cuts increase, market expectations for the Fed's policy have become stronger. The possible adoption of Ethereum spot ETF and the introduction of staking function have further stimulated market enthusiasm, while Bitcoin has broken through key points, and some altcoins have also outperformed the market. However, the market still needs to pay attention to the trend of U.S. stocks and its possible impact in the future. In this macro environment, hot events in the AI and Meme tracks deserve investors’ close attention.
