"Weekly Editor's Picks" is a "functional" column of Odaily Planet Daily. In addition to covering a large amount of real-time information every week, Planet Daily also publishes a lot of high-quality in-depth analysis content, but they may be hidden in the information flow and hot news, and pass you by.
Therefore, every Saturday, our editorial department will select some high-quality articles that are worth spending time reading and collecting from the content published in the past 7 days, and bring new inspiration to you in the crypto world from the perspectives of data analysis, industry judgment, and opinion output.
Now, come and read with us:
Investment and Entrepreneurship
Cycle capital: Analysis of repayment selling pressure in Mentougou
Mentougou creditors will sell some BTC, but probably not all. Combined with the transfer of German government tokens, it can be clearly seen that the market's expectations of a decline in token sales precede the actual sale of tokens. During this period, the German government sold a total of 40,000 tokens to the market, about $2.4 billion. At the same time, the demand for BTC ETFs was not enough to provide sufficient support, and the market price fell.
If the compensation from Mentougou is sold out within a month, the selling pressure faced by the market will be similar to that of the German government, with similar sales in terms of quantity and timing. According to the current demand for ETFs, there will be no sufficient support, and the price of BTC may fall further.
If the compensation of Mentougou lasts longer (2-3 months), the amount of BTC entering the market every day will not be particularly large, and it will not cause a one-time decline. However, due to the continued expectation of selling pressure, there may be a period of shocks to digest the selling pressure. This also means that it is difficult for the main rising wave to come in the short term.
At present, only 1,545 tokens of Mentougou have been transferred to the exchange, and the rest are still in Mentougou's account. It can be considered that the actual selling pressure has not yet entered the market. When the BTC held by Mentougou is distributed to several exchange addresses on a large scale, it may cause a large panic drop, thus forming a plunge.
Also recommended: "More than half of Mt.Gox creditors have been compensated, how will these assets be disposed of?"
Current state of venture capital market: fierce competition, returns concentrated in specific areas
The venture capital industry faces a structural challenge: an excess of capital but few quality assets to invest in, which has led to unsustainable valuation increases and ultimately undermined equity value.
Electric Capital: What did we find after studying over 1,500 projects?
Electric Capital’s industry mapping
Quantitative Analysis: Is Ethereum ETF Really Good for Altcoins?
The conclusion is no.
Buying altcoins to get leveraged exposure to ETH is a bad idea because you will be taking on a lot of additional risk that you may not be aware of. If you want leveraged exposure to ETH, it would make more sense to do a 2x long ETH strategy directly on, for example, Aave. In this case, you can achieve a 100% correlation and a beta of 2.
policy
Cycle Capital: The impact of the US election on asset prices and the main logic of "Trump trade"
There are three key moments in the future election:
The two parties’ national conventions: The Republican National Convention on July 15-18, 2024, and the Democratic National Convention on August 19-22 will select the party’s presidential and vice presidential candidates, respectively.
Second round of candidate debate: September 10, 2024.
Presidential Election Day: November 5, 2024.
The election itself cannot be used as a reason for bullish trading. The simplistic logic that the Democratic Party needs U.S. stocks to keep rising in order to win the election does not hold true. In regular election years, the market faces downside risks around October due to increased volatility.
The main directions of trading the election results (Trump Trade) are long CPI, long US bond interest rates ("long" here is relative to the market's downward expectations, and its meaning is to create resistance to the downward trend of CPI and US bond interest rates rather than an absolute increase), short gold, long US stocks but the strength is not as great as the last time Trump was elected; long BTC (it is believed that BTC follows the US stock market more, and the divergence from the US stock market is not sustainable in the long run, which is Trump crypto-friendly).
SEC explains: Why are five major tokens such as MATIC considered securities?
Each crypto-asset security was offered and sold as an investment contract since its initial offering or sale and was therefore considered a security. For each crypto-asset security, the issuer and promoter’s representations gave investors a reasonable expectation of profit from the management or entrepreneurial efforts of such issuer and promoter (and related third parties). This reasonable expectation exists whether the investor acquired the crypto-asset security through the initial offering, from a prior investor, or through a crypto-asset brokerage platform, including the MetaMask Swaps platform.
Airdrop Opportunities and Interaction Guide
After the LayerZero and ZkSync airdrops: It’s time to pause, review, and rethink the future of airdrops
The essence of the article mainly reviews the history of airdrops.
Also recommended: "One article lists nearly 40 potential airdrop projects and interaction strategies."
Meme
Solana vs Ethereum, which one is better for Meme?
In the meme craze in recent months, event-based memes, celebrity coins and PolitiFi are the main categories of memes. Among them, the three memes with representative targets on both Solana and Ethereum are GME, JENNER and FIGHT.
The article selects the above three groups of meme coins with the best performance on Solana and Ethereum, and conducts comparative analysis in terms of coin issuance efficiency, liquidity and duration: Solana has a first-mover advantage (time efficiency); Ethereum has better liquidity and lasts longer.
Although the 100x "Golden Dog" that everyone is shouting about was almost all born on Solana, if you enter the market late and are unwilling to join Solana's PvP, then give Ethereum a little patience, and perhaps you can also earn the same 100x.
Ethereum and Scaling
L3 Economic Dilemma: No Profitability Unless Monthly Transaction Volume Exceeds 50 Million
The main economic benefit of L3s is not in revenue generation, but in the value they provide to applications built on them. By drastically reducing transaction costs, L3s enable new applications and business models that may not be economically viable on more expensive L1 or L2 networks, and they allow applications to retain more value at a lower cost. New model opportunities in the future lie in prioritizing fees, using L3's native gas or staking tokens.
Multi-ecology and cross-chain
Must-read guide: Play with TON ecosystem and seize early dividends
In-depth discussion: Why are CEXs keen on building their own chains?
Purpose of protogenesis links: Exchanges such as Binance and Coinbase adapt to the rapidly changing market environment by building their own blockchain platforms, strengthening the ecosystem and diversifying revenue models.
Types of protogenesis links: Protogenesis links can be roughly divided into two categories. The first category is token-centric protogenesis links, such as Binance’s ecosystem, which enhances the value of exchanges and ecosystems through their own tokens. The second category is technology-centric protogenesis links, which focus on the performance and functionality of blockchain technology without relying on tokens.
Challenges of native chains: Although Binance and Coinbase have demonstrated their significant advantages, developing and using native chains still faces huge challenges and regulatory risks. Huobi’s HECO Chain is an example of these difficulties and the need for significant resources to attract initial users and the product.
DeFi
8 potential DeFi protocols worth paying attention to
This article reviews and introduces dAppOS, Symbiotic, Elixir, Mitosis, Infinex, Hyperlane, Shogun, and Infinity Pool from the perspective of airdrops and returns.
Web3
VC and EigenLayer founder debate: Is "Web3 data ownership" a false proposition?
Kyle Samani, partner at Multicoin: So-called "ownership" is actually about "exclusivity." "It is more likely that legislation will be passed to force big tech companies to provide algorithmic choices (similar to the way you choose a browser in Windows) rather than hoping that a new network based on shared open data that requires many developers will take off, because the existing network effects are too strong. But even if I am wrong, and the Farcaster model does reach "escape velocity" to take off, the important attribute is not "owning your data," but enabling third-party developers to build on it." Data can always be infinitely copied. Assets are scarce.
Hot Topics of the Week
In the past week, the German government address has been “cleared”; the Mt.Gox trustee has repaid BTC and BCH to some creditors through designated exchanges;
After Trump was shot, Trump-themed meme coin TRUMP soared, and Polymarket predicted that Trump's election probability continued to hit a new high. Analysts said the market flocked to non-traditional safe-haven transactions such as Bitcoin; People familiar with the matter: Elon Musk has donated to the super PAC that helps Trump's campaign; Meta will lift the ban on Trump's Facebook and Instagram accounts; Trump: Senator J.D. Vance is the best candidate for vice presidential candidate (character interpretation); Biden: If there is a problem with his health, he will consider withdrawing from the election, and then tested positive for the new coronavirus;
In addition, in terms of opinions and voices, QCP Capital: Maintain a medium-term bullish view, the crypto market is ready for a rebound, and Bitcoin will fluctuate between $61,000 and $71,000 in the short term; Arthur Hayes: We need active crypto legislation, not campaign donations; Vitalik: Don't decide your political stance based on "whether you support crypto"; Elon Musk denied WSJ's report that he "will donate $45 million a month to support Trump's campaign"; Vitalik: There is an imbalance in infrastructure investment, with some types of infrastructure investing too much and other types underinvesting; Bitwise Chief Investment Officer: Ethereum will hit a new high by the end of the year; Wall Street Journal: The U.S. SEC plans to announce the effectiveness of the Ethereum ETF registration statement next Monday; Craig Wright (CSW) issued a public statement admitting that he is not Satoshi Nakamoto; Sanctum founder: Understand the disappointment of deposit users, and there is absolutely no "rat warehouse" behavior;
In terms of institutions, large companies and leading projects, the fees of 9 spot Ethereum ETFs have been announced; Bloomberg Terminal has added some Ethereum ETFs to prepare for the opening of trading next week; FTX has reached a settlement with the CFTC, and the latter's $4 billion claim will be ranked after creditors and interest; issuers such as BlackRock BUIDL and Ondo are interested in participating in MakerDAO's $1 billion Treasury bond tokenization plan; Arthur Hayes Family Office Fund Maelstorm announced the launch of a Bitcoin developer funding program; Maker has launched a new executive vote, involving stability range parameter updates, Spark Proxy Spell and other changes; UXLINK released token economics, and the community airdropped 10% of tokens; Starknet plans to launch the STRK staking function in Q4; Sanctum will introduce "dynamic airdrops" into the airdrop details; TON Foundation plans to launch the Bitcoin cross-chain bridge service TON Teleport BTC;
In terms of data, Bitwise CIO: Since the launch of Bitcoin ETF, the amount of BTC purchased is more than twice the amount mined by miners; Reddit community survey results show that Mt. Gox creditors are not in a hurry to sell Bitcoin; Messari released Solana's second quarter report: stablecoin market value, total economic value, and daily paid active addresses increased, and Sanctum performed well;
On the security front, Indian crypto exchange WazirX was hacked, resulting in losses of more than $230 million; LI.FI found a vulnerability and has now fully resumed operations; FTX reminded users to beware of phishing emails and fake websites impersonating FTX debtors... Well, it's another week of ups and downs.
Attached is a portal to the “Weekly Editor’s Picks” series.
Reunion in the second half~
