Data from TradingView shows that the BTC/USD price was around $64,000 on July 19, up 11% over the past week.
Although trader confidence is returning and price indicators suggest the bull run is continuing, not everyone believes the time is right.
The lack of interest from mainstream retail investors is a notable factor in typical bull markets, which contrasts sharply with the accumulation behavior of institutions and whales.
Comparing past and current bull market cycles, well-known trader Rekt Capital believes that September will be a decisive moment for Bitcoin's comeback.
When will this bull market begin?
The timing of the interest rate cut is the most concerned topic in the entire financial circle. The market generally expects that it will most likely be in September. Of course, there are different opinions. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) believes that the interest rate cut should be postponed to the end of the year to allow more time for observation. They believe that before cutting interest rates, they need to be sure that the data shows that inflation has returned to the target of 2%.
The global economy is currently facing challenges, and the situation in the United States is particularly severe, especially as Biden faces re-election pressure under Trump's challenge. He urgently needs to win the hearts and votes of the people by boosting the economy. Lowering interest rates is his nuclear weapon to restore the economy. Trump has publicly stated that he does not want to cut interest rates before the election because it may affect the fairness of the election.
Near Saturday and Sunday, half of the time there was volatility or callback. After 9 consecutive days of net inflow of ETF funds, the on-chain data showed:
1. Stablecoins have not flowed out of exchanges on a large scale;
2. There is no large-scale inflow of BTC into Binance.
So the risk level is not high. The general trend is that the Federal Reserve is about to cut interest rates, which is bullish.
There are two positives next week:
1. ETH ETF may be launched, Trump attends BTC conference and gives a speech;
2. The current risk mainly lies in Mentougou, which has 140,000 BTC.
It will be distributed gradually over time, and every large transfer in the wallet will bring a small emotional panic to BTC.
The current market performance remains very stable. Under the selling pressure from institutions such as Grayscale, prices have been stabilized at the current position, which is a positive signal for future market conditions. On the 23rd, Ethereum's spot ETF will be listed for trading. The credibility of this news is very high and deserves close attention.
The selling pressure in Mentougou will not appear immediately, but will gradually appear as the price of Bitcoin rises. Some investors are willing to hold on.
In the future bull market where funds are concentrated, the market can easily absorb this selling pressure.
