Bitcoin is currently in a lull between narratives. The excitement and speculation and fast pace of inflows from the launch of the ETFs has subsided. Not much good news is on the horizon, perhaps until the U.S. election in November. In between, it seems BTC mostly faces crypto and macro headwinds.
In June, BTC nearly reached all-time highs before higher-than-expected non-farm payroll jobs data sent prices tumbling to $58,000, despite lower inflation numbers. The start of the distribution of Mt. Gox’s $9 billion BTC and the German government's sale of seized BTC saw BTC reach as low as about $54,000, but has now rebounded to the low 60ks. Once Mt. Gox distributions are complete over the next few months, it will remove a significant price risk. Despite these negative factors, BTC has shown resilience. The next potential catalyst is the ETH ETF approval. With less liquidity than BTC, strong inflows could drive ETH higher, though a supply overhang like BTC’s might occur.
Politically, we have seen Donald Trump include positive comments about BTC and digital assets in his regular stump speech, taking an America-first stance, aiming to keep jobs and wealth here in the U.S. If Trump is re-elected, the price of BTC is likely to benefit (even though the shape of a Trump Administration’s policy on digital assets is unclear). It’s possible we may see speculative buying leading up to election day as well – a positive narrative on the horizon.
Lastly, we saw a number of major central banks cut rates in June, including Canada and the E.U. As one of the greatest correlates to BTC price is global M2 liquidity, these rate cuts suggest that the trending increase in global liquidity is moving in a beneficial direction.
At the start of June, BTC nearly hit all-time highs before tailwinds pushed it down to June range lows. Despite lower-than-expected PPI, the market showed signs of buyer fatigue. Later, Mt. Gox announced BTC distributions to creditors in July, and the German government sold seized BTC, causing prices to dip below $60,000. ETH remained more resilient but still down from its May ETF rally.
BTC currently lacks a clear narrative, with only negative events on the horizon, giving buyers little to rally around. In contrast, ETH is anticipating the go-live date for its ETFs, expected to cause market excitement due to its lower liquidity compared to BTC. Many predict the ETF S-1 approval by some time in July, which could spark interest and demand. Investors will also watch if altcoins and BTC rally alongside ETH.
On the political front, Trump continues to speak positively about BTC and crypto in his stump speeches while Biden remains largely silent on the issue. Later this month is BTC 2024 in Nashville, with several politicians attending, including Donald Trump. This venue would offer a sensible place for a candidate to announce major positions on the topic of digital assets.
Note: The views expressed in this column are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of CoinDesk, Inc. or its owners and affiliates.
