Bitcoin (BTC) signals peak sentiment from US traders as spreads on Coinbase reach an all-time high (ATH). The spread in the US dollar market increases as BTC eyes the $66,000 mark.

Coinbase is once again trading Bitcoin at a higher price, pushing its spread to other markets to its highest in three months. The figure is seen as a sign of strong demand from retail buyers. But Coinbase is also the provider of most of the Bitcoin ETF vehicles, and they need to replenish their reserves.

Price spreads on Coinbase increased, while BTC also increased its share of USD trading to 18% of total volume. At the same time, the proportion of USDT has decreased to 48%, lower than the usual level of over 55%.

Price spreads are a volatility indicator that can change within hours, but the trend has persisted over the past few weeks. Previously, BTC also had higher spreads in Korean won trading, but this time, the price on Upbit is slightly lower.

Price spreads on Coinbase have also been moving higher since the beginning of July, indicating a change in buying behavior, while BTC was still correcting at the beginning of the month. Social media activity that Santiment measured showed an increase in FOMO posts over the weekend, setting the stage for a new week's rally. Optimistic sentiment increased by 8.7% over the weekend, to 48% of positive messages spread through social networks.

Bitfinex still trading Bitcoin at higher levels, but spot USD market leads the rally

The only exception to the USD arbitrage is Bitfinex, one of the most widely followed BTC exchanges. On Bitfinex, the leading cryptocurrency by capitalization is trading at a premium to USDT, at a price of $65,790. It was Bitfinex that kicked off the current expansion cycle, as analysts noted new buying behavior from whales.

The spot market also trades at high prices, while BTC awaits open interest (OI*) extension. Over the past day, futures open interest recovered to above $18 billion, with Binance once again leading at $7.7 billion.

The latest rally above $65,000 targets short positions at that level, which is currently reducing derivatives OI. The current rally is still led by spot positions, with the next forecast at $68,000.

BTC also had strong spot spreads during previous bull periods, climbing to ATH in Q2.

Bitcoin faces a combination of hype and irrational trading

BTC price action is showing some signs of irrational buying, as is recent news of famous whales like Mr.100 adding more coins. But unjustified exaggeration can be hindered by the trader's decisions.

The recent buying has yet to establish a long-term structure or adhere to a price model. Therefore, trader OI may continue to influence the market.

The BTC spot market is also paying attention to scenarios from the Mt.Gox payment wallet. Kraken currently holds 47K BTC, ready to begin paying creditors in kind. It is still uncertain whether creditors will decide to sell for a profit after more than a decade of holding or continue to hold.

Kraken's payment wallet is similar in size to the wallet liquidated by the German government in the past few weeks. However, payment wallets are not tied to a specific selling purpose.

One possible scenario for BTC is that current derivatives trading will continue, but be constrained to a new range between $65,000 and $71,500. More bullish expectations see BTC rebounding to $72,000 by the end of the month.

Source: Rekt Capital

A new short-term pullback scenario remains possible, but the current week's rally continues to receive support. In addition to spot price spreads and retail investor buying, another $422.3 million flowed into ETFs over the past day.

The presence of trading pressure also means that sentiment is easily distorted. After the most recent increase to $66,000, both crowd sentiment and smart money turned bearish in the short term. But in just one day, the cryptocurrency fear and greed index increased from 65 to 69, erasing the fearful trading sentiment from last week.

*OI (open interest) is a measure of the total value of all outstanding or “uncleared” futures contracts on exchanges, and is also an indicator of market price increases as well as like trader sentiment surrounding a particular asset class.



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