From the perspective of the Kondratieff cycle, 2024 is about to enter the end of the transition from recession to depression, but the closer it is to the end, the greater the economic fluctuations. 2024~2026 will be an extremely tragic three years. According to the deduction of the Kondratieff cycle, 2016~2026 is a depression period, and the last few years of the depression period are often the most drastic price fluctuations.

Now we are in the most difficult years of the depression period, so before 2026, many assets that have risen before will see price declines, and the price volatility of other assets will increase. If the assets in your hands are very illiquid, you will find it difficult to sell them because no one is willing to buy them. The large fluctuations in asset prices are a big blow to long-term value investors, because they always go up and down and go sideways, which will make value investors very uncomfortable compared to the unilateral upward trend in the past.

In terms of monetary policy, China and the United States are going their own way, but no matter how they go, they are just different in method, and the result is actually the same, that is, leverage recovery. During this period, the United States raised interest rates, nominally to eliminate inflation, but in fact to continue to maintain with the help of this cycle.