We have always emphasized that when altcoins begin to rise in turn, we must operate around the leading coins.
A friend asked which tracks’ leaders are worth paying attention to?
Track selection
Pay attention to those tracks that are likely to become hot spots in the next bull market. The market direction changes rapidly, and we need to make quick predictions at any time. In addition to some public chain leaders and meme leaders that have experienced a complete bull-bear cycle, you don’t need to think too much, you can see at a glance which ones are worth paying attention to.
Public chains and meme faucets
Public chain leader: Solana (SOL)
Meme leaders: PEPE in Ethereum ecosystem, DOGE in Bitcoin ecosystem, WIF in Solana chain ecosystem
Every wave of market adjustment has two dimensions: time and space. Either the space is in place or the time is in place.
Bitcoin’s Adjustment Rules
Judging from the range of each major adjustment of Bitcoin in 23 years, it is between 20% and 25%:
Silicon Valley Bank's bankruptcy in March 2023 (from 25,000 to 19,000)
Mid-April to mid-June 2023 (from 31,000 to 24,000)
Early July to August 2023 (from 31,000 to 24,000, second visit in September)
Mid-January 2024 (from 49,000 to 38,000)
Two waves from April to now this year (from 73,000 to 56,000, from 71,000 to 53,000)
This is the law of amplitude, and also the law of duration.
Current market forecast
We have discussed before that this wave of adjustments since 73,000 in mid-March is very similar to the second and third quarters of 2023. In mid-June, it was believed that the limit of Bitcoin would hit the low of 56,000 in early May. In early July, it actually fell below 56,000. Although the magnitude was not accurately judged (the actual decline was 27%), the timing was relatively accurate.
Subsequent market trends
The time dimension is also an important rule. Strategy Understanding--Research Institute--599695450 Although market sentiment is good (driven by interest rate cuts and expectations of Trump's victory), the high sentiment may also ebb for a short time. After the expectation of interest rate cuts is fulfilled, the market may have a short adjustment. I think this is possible.
This year's market is more like 1995 and 2019. The economic situation is good and the Fed has cut interest rates, but the market also had a small adjustment after the first rate cut, and then rose again. If compared with the second and third quarters of last year, after hitting the bottom in August, there may be a second test in September. We will continue to take one step at a time in the future.
Bitcoin's current bottom support is confirmed, and it is difficult for the subsequent market to fall below the position near $53,000 again unless a black swan event occurs. In addition, the long-term upward trend has been determined, and no matter short-term fluctuations or negative events, they cannot change the long-term upward trend.
Short-term operation suggestions
Based on the above deterministic events, short-term fluctuations are uncertain. Bitcoin has risen by about 24% from its lowest point to date, and has now reached a key resistance level, and may adjust in the short term. However, the market will recover quickly after a short-term adjustment, and every decline is a good time to buy.
Altcoins
Meme coins are king, and the entire market revolves around memes. Currently, the Trump concept is widely sought after, and this pattern will continue in the future. Whenever there is a hot event or a hot celebrity, new meme coins will appear.
Keep an eye on leading tracks and market trends, seize every adjustment opportunity, and formulate reasonable investment strategies.
In terms of Bitcoin?
From a medium-term perspective, the market may be pre-positioned for the direction of Trump's policy. During this election, Trump clearly supported crypto-assets and made relevant remarks many times, such as defending the right to mine Bitcoin and ending the Democratic Party’s suppression of cryptocurrencies. These stances have increased the probability of Trump winning the election and significantly boosted the prices of crypto markets such as Bitcoin.
The inflow of funds to the US Bitcoin spot ETF is also very impressive. The latest data shows that the net inflow is as high as 422 million US dollars, which has been a net inflow for 8 consecutive days and has hit a new high in a month and a half. This shows that American investors are very interested in Bitcoin (pre-positioning) against the backdrop of Trump's increased probability of winning the election.
At the Bitcoin2024 conference to be held on July 25, Trump will also attend a speech with many well-known Bitcoin supporters, including independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood, and MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor. Let us wait and see what Trump will say next.
