Trump publicly warned Powell that if the Fed cuts rates before November, it could add leverage to Biden's election. Trump's approval ratings suggest that he is almost a favorite to be the next president as long as he can participate in the campaign in good health. Next, we face four possible scenarios:

A. If the Fed cuts rates normally in September and Trump is successfully elected in November (this is the result we most expect, which will be a double positive for the market).

B. If the Fed does not cut rates before November, Trump is still elected (this situation has both advantages and disadvantages).

C. If the Fed cuts rates normally in September, but Trump is unable to participate and win the election for some reason (also mixed advantages and disadvantages, the expected benefits of Trump's election will be shattered).

D. If the Fed does not cut rates before November and Trump is unable to participate in the election (this will be a double negative, and the market may suffer a heavy blow).

It can be foreseen that the market will experience violent fluctuations in the next few months, and various possibilities exist. Therefore, we need to be fully prepared and plan. However, if you are a long-term investor, these short-term fluctuations may not have much impact on your investment strategy, so you can stay calm and confident.

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