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On Saturday, Trump was shot. During a campaign event in Pennsylvania, Trump, who was leaning his head to one side, suddenly covered his ears. Then there were several loud noises, and he immediately lay down and hid under the podium. The US Secret Service bodyguards rushed forward to protect him and prepared to help Trump off the stage. Trump said wait a minute, and at this time his ear was dripping with blood, as it was grazed by a bullet. A few minutes later, he stood up, and as he walked off the stage, Trump held his head high, stretched out his fist, and shouted "Fight" three times. Many audience members were also incited and began to shout.
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Two and a half hours after the shooting, Trump issued a statement on the social media Truth Social, first thanking the US Secret Service and expressing condolences to the families of innocent viewers who were shot during the campaign. Then he said that no one knows who the shooter is and God bless America. Major media immediately followed up on the incident. According to the latest news, the shooter is Thomas Matthew Crooks, only 20 years old. He liked chess and programming in high school and just got an engineering degree. According to his classmates, he is a very smart student and there is no problem with him. In the subsequent investigation, it was found that he was a Republican. No one thought he could do such an extreme thing. He was shot dead by secret agents shortly after the incident. Investigators currently believe that it should be his personal behavior.
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So for us investors, what impact will this incident have on the U.S. stock market? According to FactSet, Trump's chances of winning have become greater after the shooting. The current betting market has increased the probability of Trump winning the election to 67%. The spread between 10-year and 2-year Treasury bonds has therefore widened by 23 basis points. The market believes that Trump's tax cuts, tariffs and immigration policies will stimulate inflation. Wall Street is also increasingly betting on Trump Trade, that is, betting that Trump will be elected, and trading in advance the positive and negative factors that his policies will bring. For example, Bitcoin and Tesla are relatively strong today. Bitcoin has returned to 60,000 and is now up more than 64,000, while Tesla has once risen by more than 6%.
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Trump is very friendly to the cryptocurrency circle. At the beginning of the year, he announced that he would accept donations from cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. He also claimed that he would relax regulations and not let regulations hinder innovation. At the end of the month, he will also attend the Bitcoin Conference in the United States, so it is not surprising that Bitcoin and related stocks have risen sharply. Tesla's stock price rose 30% today because Musk publicly endorsed Trump on X when the shooting occurred. Trump's support for Musk is greater than that of the current President Biden, so Trump's high chance of winning is also interpreted as a positive. On Friday, Bloomberg reported that Musk donated a considerable amount of money to America SuperPac, a super political action committee supporting Trump. Trump Media also rose 30% today because of this.
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After the shooting, Trump's chances of winning have undoubtedly become greater, and it is estimated that it will continue to ferment for some time. From the perspective of hype, Republicans will definitely make full use of the shooting to increase the possibility of Trump's victory, which will provide support for the Trump Trade mentioned above in the short term. I also think that the possibility of Trump's election is very high, but it should be reminded that it is still several months away from November, so there are still many variables. We cannot rule out that if Trump is really elected in the future, the relevant targets will appear to be sold the news, so if any of our viewers have made Trump Trade, we must keep a clear head and stop profit in time.
