Today, I had another discussion with my friends about the Mt.Gox incident.
If you want me to say that there is no impact, it is definitely impossible. However, how much impact and how long it can affect are what we should explore and infer. Otherwise, we will live in panic every day, so it is better to quit the circle and live a good life.
First, I will give my own perspective: the short-term and medium-term impact can be ignored for the time being, and the medium- and long-term impact will form selling pressure around the resistance. The initial impact will gradually manifest above 68,000-70,000 yuan, and then a new round of upward movement will be diluted by the positive news.
There are three bases
First, regarding the victims of the Mt.Gox incident, as pioneer participants in the currency circle from 2010 to 2014, and still actively participating in the claims incident, it is enough to promote the popularity of cryptocurrency. If the compensation is in place, the risk public opinion problem that has always existed on the head platform is undoubtedly a good interpretation. At the same time, as the backbone of the currency circle for ten years, their faith must be better than most people.
Secondly, the cycle problem, the total volume of 140,000 compensations may sound scary, but in fact, it has a very limited impact on the overall market after the influx of ETFs, and it is paid in batches, so how much selling pressure can there actually be?
Finally, it is the impact on macro sentiment. If we try to add more long and short positions, you will clearly see that under the current macro sentiment, what else can affect the further upward movement of bulls besides selling pressure? Counting on black swans? What is the difference between this and gambling?
Talking about the impact, the core basis for the rise in coin prices is nothing more than recognition. I think the affected groups do not need us to worry about the recognition of coin prices. Is the rest the market pricing recognition? In my opinion, the current upward trend has come out, and the next round of resistance should focus on the concentrated chips above 7w. At that time, there may be a downward trend under the influence of profit-taking and selling pressure, but maybe the good news will also be released?
Therefore, as participants, we must always keep a clear mind, judge, identify, analyze, and extract useful things in this chaotic market, rather than being like a leek, listening to the wind and rain, and finally being cut and made into a dish on the plate without knowing it.
