đ„đ„đ„ #bitcoinâïž Hasnât Reached #BullCycle Top Yet, Quant Explains Why
Bitcoin May Not Have Reached the Top of the Current Bull Cycle, Analyst Suggests
According to recent trends in an on-chain indicator, an analyst has suggested that Bitcoin may still need to reach the peak of the current bull cycle.
Bitcoin aSOPR Hasnât Hit Historical Cycle Top Levels
As explained in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, the Bitcoin Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR) has yet to reach the levels seen during previous cycle tops. The SOPR is an on-chain indicator that measures whether investors are selling their tokens at a profit or a loss by examining the blockchain history of each coin sold.
Understanding SOPR and aSOPR
The SOPR metric calculates the ratio of profits to losses realized across the network:
- SOPR > 1: Investors are selling at a net profit.
- SOPR < 1: Investors are selling at a net loss.
The aSOPR, or adjusted SOPR, excludes transactions of coins made within an hour of their previous transfers to provide a clearer picture of profit-taking behavior.
Current aSOPR Trends
The 90-day EMA Bitcoin aSOPR saw a rise earlier this year alongside a price rally, indicating increased profit-taking. However, with the recent bearish momentum, the indicator has cooled down, dropping from a peak of 1.05 to 1.01.
Historical Comparisons and Potential Future Trends
In previous bull runs (2017 and 2021), the indicator approached a value of 1.1 at the cycle tops. The recent high was significantly lower, resembling the peak during the April 2019 rally, which preceded the main bull run.
This similarity suggests that Bitcoin might experience a similar pattern, with the current rally being a prelude to a larger bull run.
$BTC Price
Bitcoin has rallied about 5% in the past 24 hours, pushing its price above the $63,000 mark.
Source - newsbtc.com
