The address was sold out and the market is rebounding. Goldman Sachs said: They believe the Fed has "good reason" to cut interest rates at the July meeting. The latest inflation data shows that 4% is appropriate, while it is currently 5.25%-5.5%, so it is expected that rate cuts will begin soon. Fed Goolsbee: Rate cuts will be guaranteed soon. Last week's mild June inflation data made him more confident that price pressures are easing, thus supporting rate cuts.

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The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Department of Justice (DOJ) National Cryptocurrency Enforcement Team (NCET) held their first Fraud Disruption conference last week to address crypto scams such as pig-killing trays, which cost Americans billions of dollars each year, making them a key enforcement focus. The conference focused on prevention strategies, technical disruption of fraud, and cooperative law enforcement efforts. Participants also launched anti-fraud activities to remind Americans to be vigilant against emerging fraud threats. North Carolina Attorney General Josh Stein issued a warning against BTC ATM scams after receiving a large number of complaints. The warning outlines tips to avoid such scams, emphasizing the need to be cautious about unsolicited cryptocurrency payment requests, online relationships turning to finance, verifying investment advice, and avoiding get-rich-quick scams, urging victims to report fraud. Coingalss data shows that if BTC rebounds and breaks through $65,000, it is expected that $732 million in short orders will be liquidated. IntoTheBlock said that BTC whales added 71,000 BTC to their addresses last week, and they took advantage of the recent price drop. According to CryptoQuant data, BTC whales are hoarding BTC at the fastest rate since April 2023 (the US Silicon Valley bank collapse crisis). According to HODL15Capital data, on July 14, "Mr.100" increased his holdings by more than 200 BTC. Since the sale began in June 2024, institutional liquidity providers, market makers, etc. have absorbed most of Germany's BTC. The US Securities and Exchange Commission has abandoned its three-year investigation into blockchain software developer Hiro Systems (formerly Blockstack). According to Lookonchain data, in the past 24 days, the address marked as "German Government" has sold all 50,179 BTC, worth about $3.3 billion, and currently has about 0 remaining. Ben Simpson, founder of Collective Shift, said that with the end of Germany's "forced selling" and the MtGox compensation almost factored into the price, the loose macro environment will be a driving force for BTC prices in the coming months.

Powell hinted that interest rates may be lowered in the near future, the S&P 500 hit a new high, and a large number of ETFs returned, which are all good for BTC. Cryptoslate said that futures prices have been rising steadily from August 2024 to June 2025. Historically, halving events have led to a sharp rise in prices due to reduced supply. The current futures pricing is in line with this historical law, and prices are expected to continue to rise. Trader T predicts that after a week of strong selling by the German government, MtGox will be the next strong seller, selling up to 100,392 BTC before November. Given its dispersed ownership, the possibility of large-scale liquidation is low. According to the worst-case scenario, MtGox will sell 80% of its BTC, which may bring $4.62 billion in liquidation pressure. Last Saturday, the address marked as "Germany" ended the sale of about 50,000 BTC, and the big cake rebounded over the weekend, standing at $63,000 on Monday. The US spot BTCETF has increased its holdings by 22,277 BTC so far this month. Since July 5, the US spot BTC ETF has achieved net inflows for six consecutive days. After an inflow of $1 billion last week, the BTC holdings of US spot ETFs hit a record high of 886,800 BTC. According to Matrixport, the BTC spot ETF hit its highest level in more than a month with an inflow of $310 million last Friday. ETFs are closely related to inflation data. Last week's CPI data was weaker than expected, and ETFs may continue to inflow. Global BTC ETFs (39 funds) currently hold a total of 1,051,569 BTC, worth about $64.1 billion, of which BlackRock IBIT holds 316,284 BTC worth about $19.8 billion.

QCP Capital said that the market has regained some stability, and the reasons for the rebound include: positive macro sentiment, slowing inflation, a 95% chance of a Fed rate cut in September, the German government's 50,000 BTC sell-off has been completed, and spot ETF demand is strong, with a net inflow of about $1 billion last week. Large hedge funds actively increased their holdings of BTC upside, especially December and March call options, with a target of $100,000-120,000 price levels. The market is not limited to the expectation of a rate cut in September, and even began to evaluate a rate cut in July. Goldman Sachs said: They believe that the Fed has "good reason" to cut interest rates at the July meeting, but did not change their forecast for a rate cut to start in September. According to the latest unemployment and inflation data, an interest rate of 4% is appropriate, while it is currently 5.25%-5.5%, so it is expected that the rate cut will start soon. The Chicago futures market in the United States shows that traders are beginning to bet that the Fed will cut interest rates by 50 basis points by September, rather than the standard 25 basis points. Marilyn Watson, head of strategy at BlackRock, said: The Fed is likely to cut interest rates in September, but also believes that the Fed may start to act in advance in July. More people believe that the Fed may start its first easing cycle in many years with a super-large-scale move. Fed's Goolsbee: Rate cuts will be guaranteed soon. Last week's mild June inflation data made him more confident that price pressures are easing, thus supporting rate cuts. Inflation is contained, which means that the Fed can focus only on economic growth, so the market expects rate cuts. On Monday, the S&P 500 continued to hit a new high, hitting 5,666 points, up 0.33%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.4%. The big cake rose 5% after getting rid of the German and American sell-offs. The market is still the same market, with a bull market dominated by rate cuts. All kinds of negative factors and pits in the middle will not change the bull market outlook. #美联储何时降息？ #美国大选如何影响加密产业？ #美国6月CPI大幅降温