A few gunshots almost announced the end of the suspense of the US presidential election. This is a moment of political violence, and also a moment when a "hero" is born. In the crypto world, the gunshots also became the starting gun for the bulls' counterattack at this moment, and even became a catalyst for market trends.
At 18:11 Eastern Time on July 13, former US President Trump was shot at a presidential election campaign rally in Pennsylvania. Trump, with blood gushing from his face, was immediately protected by the Secret Service. After speaking to the crowd, he was sent to the hospital for treatment and is in basically good health.
After being shot, Trump did not leave the scene quickly, but instead shouted to his supporters at the rally. Under the lens of Pulitzer Prize winner Evan Vucci, Trump clenched his fists high, his face was covered in blood, and the American flag was flying behind his head. The tragedy and heroism rendered in the picture immediately became a classic. This shocking scene also became a blockbuster picture that major media around the world rushed to reprint. Some people even found that it was surprisingly consistent with the "Leading Statue of Liberty" in 1803, which added a heavy touch to Trump's image as a fighting hero.
After the news of Trump's assassination came out, on Polymarket, bets on Trump's election as president reached 70%, while Biden only had 16%. At the same time, BTC also jumped sharply, quickly breaking through 60,000 US dollars.
The impact of politics on the crypto world is more intuitive at this moment. Although the market believes that Trump is likely to be elected, his friendly remarks on cryptocurrencies are very conducive to the development of cryptocurrencies. However, from a deeper perspective, in the increasingly polarized political struggle and global geopolitical game, Trump's assassination may make the already turbulent global political landscape move in a more extreme direction. If we further look back at Trump's past attitude towards cryptocurrencies, we may be able to see this trend more clearly, and we can also see how Trump has gone from an "anti-crypto president" to a "crypto-friendly president."
1. 2017-2021 presidential term: Criticism! Denial! But moderate regulatory space
During Trump's first election as US President and his term in office, Trump himself took a clear stance against cryptocurrencies, even publicly declaring his disapproval of cryptocurrencies in the media.
However, it was during Trump's tenure that various regulations began to develop.
In July 2017, the year he took office, the United States introduced the "Uniform Virtual Currency Business Regulation Act", which has no legal effect. It provides a basic legal framework for regulating the business activities of virtual currency exchanges and a legislative basis for U.S. states. In December of the same year, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) launched Bitcoin futures.
In 2018, the SEC under Trump began to strengthen its regulation of ICOs, including a crackdown on Arise Bank, the world's first crypto bank.
In 2019, Trump published his first criticism of Bitcoin and crypto assets on public social media. At the same time, the fiscal budget proposal released the following year disclosed millions of dollars in regulatory enforcement funds for the crypto industry.
Before and after leaving office in 2020-2021, although the Trump administration cabinet nominated a number of crypto-friendly advisers, in its public statements, it still insisted that "Bitcoin is a scam and called for stronger regulation of crypto assets", and personally declared that it did not hold cryptocurrencies.
2. 2021-2023: Turning point, Trump’s deep involvement in the NFT craze
The year Trump left office coincided with the rapid growth of NFT issuance. Celebrities from all walks of life started issuing personal NFTs and made a lot of money at once. In particular, Mrs. Trump quickly followed the trend and announced the launch of an NFT platform to issue Trump-related NFTs. Perhaps it was the personal experience of celebrities and his wife that in 2022, Trump officially announced the release of his own limited edition NFT. In 2023, Trump issued two series of NFTs in a row and launched NFT rights, such as Trump dinners and autographed souvenirs, which showed a trend of making his own NFT business bigger and stronger. There is reason to believe that Trump should have made a lot of money through the NFT market during his tenure, which to a certain extent also laid a strong foundation for his change of attitude during his subsequent presidential campaign.
3. 2024-Present: A shift in political struggle to become a crypto-friendly president
2024 is the year of the US presidential election. The party struggle in the United States is becoming increasingly fierce. Trump and Biden are doing their best to win the presidency. Cryptocurrency has attracted the attention of younger voters and is becoming more and more popular in the United States. It has also been used by Trump as one of the important means of campaigning.
In May this year, Trump said he would accept cryptocurrency donations and specifically pointed out that "Biden doesn't even know what cryptocurrency is" in order to curry voters' votes and financial support. In addition, Trump also publicly declared that he would ensure the future of cryptocurrency and Bitcoin in the United States and promised to pardon Ross Ulbricht, the founder of Silk Road.
Part of Trump's original speech in support is as follows:
1、“I will also stop Joe Biden’s crusade to crush crypto – we’re gonna stop it. I will ensure that the future of crypto and the future of bitcoin will be made in the USA, not driven overseas. I will support the right to self custody,”
Translation: I will also stop Joe Biden's crusade against cryptocurrency - we are going to stop it. I will ensure that the future of cryptocurrency and the future of Bitcoin is in America, not driven overseas. I will support the right of cryptocurrency holders to self-custody."
2、Bitcoin mining may be our last line of defense against a CBDC. Biden's hatred of Bitcoin only helps China, Russia, and the Radical Communist Left.We want all the remaining Bitcoin to be MADE IN THE USA!!!
Translation: Bitcoin mining may be our last line of defense against CBDCs... We want all remaining Bitcoins to be made in the USA!!!
Another example of cryptocurrency becoming an important tool in the political struggle is the reaction of Trump's opponent Biden.
On May 9 this year, the Biden administration announced the veto of the repeal of the SAB121 bill, which is essentially intended to protect consumers of digital assets. After Biden was vetoed, it triggered strong opposition from crypto supporters, forcing Biden to issue a statement that month calling on Congress to establish a "balanced regulatory framework" and begin to contact key figures in the cryptocurrency industry. Under Trump's strong overtures to crypto, Biden had to ease his usual tough stance and turn to please voters, after all, this is about the presidency.
IV. The future: the interaction between politics and cryptocurrencies, the intensification of political violence, and the increasingly compliant crypto assets
Perhaps Trump's various actions, as Arthur Hayes criticized, his "sudden concern for cryptocurrencies" is not sincere, but just to please the young, politically active and upstart cryptocurrency community, but from the perspective of Trump's assassination itself, the internal division crisis and social contradictions hidden behind the political struggle have become increasingly obvious problems as the political struggle has risen to the stage of armed conflict and assassination. Or, in the near future, people's concerns about war may become a reality, which will further strengthen the attributes of Bitcoin and the crypto assets behind it as the ultimate global safe-haven assets.
The more direct impact is that no matter whether Biden or Trump takes office, they will not be able to ignore the impact of crypto assets and the young people of Generation Z behind them, and compliance may be further accelerated. After all, as an old man approaching 80 years old, Trump should understand that the world will eventually belong to these young people, and they will lead the opening of a new era. Whether they like it or not, the trend of cryptocurrency has already been established, and it is better to let it develop in compliance than to be full of fraud. Trump's fist waving high and the blood are not only a scene worthy of being recorded in the history of American politics, but also perhaps a classic footnote to the crypto world's move towards the "compliance era".
