July 13 Xiaoyao Study Club The expectation of interest rate cut is approaching, and market sentiment is gradually recovering

After Thursday's CPI decline, the US stock market was slightly weak, mainly because the US dollar liquidity will be relatively tight before and after the Fed cuts interest rates, and a large amount of funds will go to buy US bonds, so the market liquidity will not be too good near the interest rate cut node; interest rate cuts are accompanied by economic slowdown, and there will be a certain degree of outflow without liquidity.

On July 12, the US spot Bitcoin ETF had a net inflow of US$312 million, of which GBTC had an inflow of US$23 million, IBIT had a net inflow of US$120 million, and FBTC had a net inflow of US$115 million. US ETFs have had net inflows for 6 consecutive trading days. From the trend point of view, the amount of funds flowing in has increased significantly after the release of CPI data.

Today's panic index is 25. When the fear and greed index is less than 25 and is closer to 0, it generally indicates that the market is at the bottom and market sentiment is gradually recovering. You can consider buying or going long.

In July, the BTC congestion dropped sharply from 142% to 32.85%, which means that the risk of stampede has been completely eliminated.

Now that Mentougou has been fully implemented, the selling pressure of paying 140,000 BTC is not great. After all, the unknown is the most terrifying, and the chips are distributed to retail investors. It is also the retail investors who decide whether to sell or continue to hold, so there will not be a concentrated and large-scale market crash.

It is not wise to short and all-in in the big cycle. The opportunity cost of missing out is far greater than the possible retracement. The subsequent market will become optimistic. Reasonably control the C position and keep the original intention. Grasp this round of bull market, and earn at least three years of meal tickets in the next year. After this cycle, the dividends will disappear completely, and the big cake will form a trend similar to gold in the future. In the future, we can only do similar spread transactions. Of course, the market volatility is still not small, and senior gamblers still have opportunities.

Investment is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market

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