Thursday’s inflation report could set the stage for the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates this year.

While the crypto community expects the first rate cut to spark a bull run in Bitcoin, the reaction depends on the context of the bank’s easing policy.

The likelihood that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates this year appears increasingly likely following Thursday’s inflation report, satisfying cryptocurrency bulls’ long-held desire for a more risk-tolerant macroeconomic environment.

The consensus in the cryptocurrency market community is that the rate cuts, likely to begin in September, will boost fiat liquidity, spurring demand for riskier investments like Bitcoin (BTC).

While this sounds plausible, any easing may have already been priced in by the market. Expectations of rate cuts have dominated crypto and traditional market sentiment since the second half of 2022 and were one of the key catalysts for Bitcoin’s surge from a low of around $15,000 in 2022 to an all-time high of over $73,000 this year. Therefore, an actual rate cut may only elicit a modest reaction from the market.

Perhaps more important is the context of the rate cut.

The stimulus to asset prices could be more pronounced if rate cuts occur during a period of low inflation and economic prosperity. Cutting rates when the economy shows signs of fragility could send a negative signal, prompting investors to move money from riskier assets to safer assets such as government bonds.

“If the Fed cuts rates in September 2024 solely on inflation concerns, this could be a short-term positive for Bitcoin,” 10x Research founder Markus Thielen said in a note shared with CoinDesk. “However, if economic growth concerns lead to a rate cut, whether in September or later, Bitcoin could face significant selling pressure.”

Thielen said that historically, Bitcoin has seen the biggest gains when the Federal Reserve pauses in its rate hike cycle. The first rate cut usually draws a tepid reaction.

"During the period when the Fed paused its rate hikes until July 2019, Bitcoin experienced explosive growth, returning +169%. Seven months after the pause in 2019, the Fed cut rates, kicking off a dramatic rate-cutting cycle. Initially, Bitcoin reacted positively, rising +19% in the week following the rate cut on July 31, 2019. However, two weeks later, Bitcoin was back to flatlining," Thielen said.

Thielen added that the rate cuts in the second half of 2019 were due to economic uncertainty and had an impact on the price of BTC. CoinDesk data shows that the cryptocurrency's price fell 33% in the second half of the year.

The U.S. stock market is showing a similar trend.

“The advent of a Fed rate-cutting cycle tends to coincide with a significant decline in the stock market,” Austin Pecker, a strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, said last month, according to MarketWatch. “Since 1974, within 250 days of the Fed’s first rate cut, the stock market has fallen by an average of about 20%.”

Pickle added that if the Fed is forced to cut rates in response to macroeconomic weakness, the stock market will suffer.

This means that cryptocurrency traders should be wary of signs of a weakening U.S. economy.

According to the Fidelity Business Cycle Tracker, the U.S. economy was in the late expansion phase at the end of the second quarter. Leading indicators such as new orders for consumer goods and materials, consumer confidence, and building permits point to future economic weakness. If the weakening trend becomes more pronounced in the coming months, rate cuts will do little to help risk assets, including BTC.