There were no significant changes on the market - Bitcoin fell to 56500, but the strait was bought and now Bitcoin has been trying to overcome the intermediate resistance area at 58300-58500 for several hours.
Market capitalization is 2.1 trillion, dominance index is 54.56%. Ether has still gained a foothold above 3100; what’s next is either the long-awaited good news (taking into account the time zone, it may come out at night), or a return of Bitcoin above 60K (or at least above 59500).
The Saxony government sold another 10K BTS. They have about 3K BTS left.
Interestingly, the mt.GOX topic has not surfaced for a week now. This means that our version that Bitcoin payments there will be very small is confirmed. Since there are still enough 3K BTS translated in the first batch.
Now there are other numbers.
- According to CryptoQuant, since July 3, BTC reserves on exchanges have decreased by $4,000,000,000+ (70,966 BTC). This is the minimum since November 2018. Remember what happened in November 2018? It’s a brutal crypto winter, interest is at a minimum, there are 10 times fewer crypto owners than there are now. The crypto market capitalization was 120 billion!
- And Bitcoin reserves on exchanges were the same.
- The fear index now is the same as in November-December 2022, after the FTX scam.
- The dollar index appears to have broken through support at 104-103.9, which has held since late March 2024. Let's see what happens when the markets close.
- The S&P 500 is growing, now up more than 1.1%. The market ignored the PPI data, which came out worse (above) today than expected.
And this indicates two things:
1. I recently said that growing inflation in Canada and falling in the United States may indicate that the US inflation data is showing.
CPI is better than the forecast while PPI, which comes out the next day worse than the forecast, is also in favor of this version. Either the excess of the performer, or an elegant setup - the CPI was drawn, and the PPI was given out as is.
However, the market is not thinking about this now - the probability of a Fed rate cut in September is already 91%
Let's see if there will be any surprises in the form of large fixations by the close of the session. And if we leave for the weekend with Bitcoin above 58300-58500 (or at least above 58K) - alts can give 15-20% growth over the weekend.
But let's not relax - in a thin weekend market, another wave of FUDa is quite possible.
True, the market is becoming increasingly immune to it. The deer are running out.
