Why is it said that a full bull market is about to start?
(Strategy Zhuye)
The recent crypto market has continued to fall deeply, causing most investors to suffer heavy losses. The market is in a panic, and many investors have begun to doubt whether the bull market is still there. I think that the bull market is not only still there, but also because the main negative factors have basically subsided, some major positive factors are coming. The long-awaited full bull market in the crypto market is about to start.
The first negative factor is out: the Mentougou compensation shoe has landed
The large-scale selling brought by the Mentougou compensation has always been the sword of Damocles hanging over the crypto market, and has been mentioned continuously since the last round of bull market. Now, this shoe has finally landed. Even with the superposition of the selling orders of the US government and the German government, from the perspective of the market's volume and price performance, this pressure is not as terrible as expected. The selling has been basically digested by the market.
The second negative factor is out: the high FDV bubble of VC coins disappears
A core factor hindering the arrival of the copycat season is that the FDV (fully diluted valuation) of many VC-led star projects is too high, and there will be a steady stream of token unlocking in the future. Retail investors can only take over at high prices, which makes them more inclined to hype MEME coins rather than VC coins. However, after this round of decline, the high valuation bubble of VC coins has been fully squeezed, providing the necessary conditions for the future take-off of VC coins.
The third negative factor is exhausted: market risks have been fully released
Futures positions represent the level of market leverage. Excessive positions mean that the market has accumulated excessive risks. At the beginning of June, the futures positions of BTC and ETH were at historical highs, especially ETH, with abnormally high positions. This shows that the market leverage was too high at the time. At present, the positions of both have fallen back to the level of early May, and the market risks have been fully released.
The fourth negative factor is exhausted: SEC's regulatory attitude has eased
In the past two years, the US SEC has tightened its regulatory stance on the crypto market and taken enforcement actions against many crypto companies, causing panic in the entire currency circle. However, with the defeat of the Grayscale case and the approaching US election, its regulatory attitude has eased. #美国6月CPI大幅降温 #币安7周年 #美联储何时降息？
