According to ChainCatcher, LD Capital published a comprehensive analysis of the BTC selling pressure in Mentougou. Data shows that as of July 12, 138,000 BTC are still in the account address of Mentougou. It can be considered that the selling pressure in Mentougou has not actually entered the market. The decline on July 5 is part of the realization of the expected decline in the selling pressure in Mentougou.
The article analyzed that LD Capital believes that Mentougou creditors will sell some BTC, but not all. If the compensation of Mentougou is sold out within a month, the selling pressure faced by the market will be highly similar to the selling of the German government, with the amount and time of selling being similar. According to the current demand for ETFs, it cannot provide sufficient support, and the price of BTC may fall further.
If the compensation in Mentougou lasts longer (2-3 months), the amount of BTC entering the market every day will not be particularly large, and it will not cause a one-time decline. However, due to the continued expectation of selling pressure, there may be a period of volatility to digest the selling pressure. This also means that it is difficult for the main upward wave to come in the short term.
At present, only 1,545 Mentougou tokens have actually been transferred to the exchange, and the remaining tokens are still in Mentougou’s account. It can be considered that the actual selling pressure has not yet entered the market. When the BTC held by Mentougou is distributed on a large scale to several trading platform addresses, it may cause a large panic drop, thus forming a plunge pin. When specific individuals sell, due to the dispersion and difficulty in tracking and observing, it may not necessarily cause a significant drop in price.
