After this wave of market conditions, everyone has been hurt by value coins.

However, it is not reliable to fully embrace MeMe, because there are tens of thousands of MeMes a day, and they are basically reduced to zero. It is very difficult to make money by selecting them.

At the same time, we cannot completely deny value coins. Most of the coins that increased 100 times in the last bull market came from value coins. However, we must also learn from this painful lesson and prevent ourselves from being hurt again. The key is to measure it from the following four dimensions.

1 Cost of the institution

The cost of the institution is very important data, especially for the tokens that are about to be unlocked or are being unlocked. We know that the team's token chips are 0, and the institutional chip price can be used as a reference. Now the investment amount of project institutions is often tens of millions of US dollars. If they have already made more than 10 times the profit, then they will think about cashing out.

Cost calculation method of the institution

1) If it is a Binance launchpool project, it will often be announced in the research report.

2) We can also check the project's financing amount on websites such as rootdata, and query the number of tokens obtained in the economic model. For example, rootdata found that the A round of financing was 20 million, and the white paper stated that 200 million tokens were obtained. The cost of the A round was calculated to be 0.1.

https://www.rootdata.com/

3) If there is no specific number of tokens in a round, we can at least calculate the total financing amount and the tokens obtained by the institution to get the average price. Then we estimate that the latest round will be more expensive and the seed round will be cheaper.

We can use the prices set by institutions to predict whether they have the motivation to push up the market.

On the other hand, if the cost of the institution is relatively high, then the institution is likely to pull up the price itself or put pressure on the project party.

2 Projects that have already made a lot of money

Making money is the first motivation of people. For project owners who have already made a lot of money, how can they continue to struggle? Because to do things, they need to invest money in publicity and promotion, and to pull the market, they need to invest money, which is a risky thing for them. You know, 10 million US dollars is already a huge fortune in reality.

Think about those layer 2s, they have already earned tens of millions in handling fees, and they can earn tens of millions or even hundreds of millions of dollars from insider trading when they go online, and the money invested by institutions is tens of millions. They just need to wait until the team unlocks and then sell for hundreds of millions of dollars.

So we try to stay away from projects that have already made a lot of money, because your investment may end up adding a toilet to their mansion.

3 Time of listing

As we all know, when the market is good, the valuation is high, and the higher the valuation, the more cash can be cashed out. If the project party is only thinking about cashing out, they will list their shares when the market is good. Of course, the time to list their shares is related to the progress of the project itself.

However, projects that are willing to go online when the market is not good can show that they are still thinking about continuing to work hard. In addition, those with insider information can also pay attention to those that can be listed on Binance but ultimately choose to go online on other exchanges due to terms. This also means that they will continue to work hard. Now is a good time to pay attention to such projects.

From another perspective, projects that have announced airdrops but are reluctant to go public due to poor market conditions should be treated with caution. They are definitely waiting for a high valuation to be listed. There are several well-known projects of this kind, such as Eigenlayer, etc.

4. Project’s on-chain stakes

When I was doing project research reports, I always studied the project's on-chain chips. Many project owners are aware that they want to do something secretly. As a blockchain project, because of its own open and transparent approach, the tokens can be supervised by the community at any time. However, some project owners distributed tokens to a large number of wallets during TGE, such as arb distributing 3.36 billion tokens to 206 separate addresses and 5 mixed addresses.

If such a project is found, it will definitely be a minus point. There is really no other explanation, so we can only think that the project direction can secretly ship at any time.

The distribution of tokens is the easiest to see, and you can see it at a glance on the blockchain browser. As for other information about the chips on the chain, you need a certain foundation. For example, you can check whether the team's unlocked chips have been sold to judge the team's expectations for the future, etc.