On the eve of the release of non-farm data last week, I was optimistic about the consumer price index (CPI).

But in the following days, the evolution of market dynamics and on-chain URPD data made me re-examine the situation. I found that:

Large investors are quietly withdrawing from the market, showing a strong tendency to take profits;

The producer price index (PPI) in April unexpectedly climbed, and this trend may lag until June, putting CPI under upward pressure and making the trend confusing;

The US stock market index continues to soar to a staggering high, which may indicate the risk of market adjustments;

Given the uncertainty of President Biden's election prospects, the outside world speculates that his motivation to manipulate data again to boost public opinion has weakened;

In addition, the unexpected return to zero of CPI data last month has added to the unpredictability of future trends.

My prediction tonight is that CPI may exceed the general expectations of the market.

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