As the 2024 US election approaches, the influence of cryptocurrencies has reached an unprecedented height. Recent news shows that Trump plans to give a speech at the 2024 Bitcoin Conference, a move that could bring a major turnaround to the crypto market. This article will take a deep look at this event and the market potential behind it.
The correlation between the election and the cryptocurrency market
Why is 2024 particularly important?
2024 is not only an election year in the United States, but also an election year worldwide with more than 60 countries participating, representing 49% of the world’s population. An election year of this magnitude is particularly important for global digital assets like Bitcoin, as their influence transcends national borders.
$BTC’s Global Influence
While traditional stock investors typically only focus on one country’s elections, Bitcoin ($BTC), as a global asset, is affected by all elections. $BTC and other cryptocurrencies have grown significantly in terms of monetary and political influence in recent years, and politicians who support cryptocurrencies may gain favor with voters around the world.
Trump and Bitcoin Conference
Trump plans to give a speech at the 2024 Bitcoin Conference, which is an important move for him to actively connect with the cryptocurrency field. In contrast, previous crypto tokens usually took advantage of the popularity of the US election by creating topics. Trump's participation means that political-related tokens may usher in new fluctuations.
Political influence and market variables
In addition to the participation of individual politicians, the US election as a political phenomenon can indeed bring new variables to the crypto market. The policies of the new leaders will have a profound impact on the cryptocurrency market in the next few years.
The potential impact of the U.S. election on cryptocurrencies
Motivations for embracing cryptocurrencies
Mainstream sentiment toward Bitcoin ($BTC) has changed dramatically in recent years. Governments may reward politicians who support cryptocurrencies and punish those who oppose them. In El Salvador and Argentina, for example, pro-Bitcoin candidates have achieved significant victories.
$BTC The rise of ETFs
A key moment was the approval of the $BTC spot ETF. Nearly a third of US voters said it made them more interested in $BTC and cryptocurrencies. According to a survey conducted by Harris Poll for Grayscale, 47% of US voters expect a portion of their portfolio to include cryptocurrencies.
Market performance in election years
S&P 500's Election Year Performance
Historical data shows that election years tend to drive asset prices higher. In past election years, the S&P 500 has performed more positively. When Republicans were elected, the average return was 15.3%; when Democrats were elected, the average return was 7.6%; and in all election years, the average return was 11.28%.
$BTC Performance in an Election Year
Bitcoin’s performance in election years is also worth watching. The current price of $BTC is higher than it has ever been in previous election years. This has raised some concerns about an early peak, but there are also views that we are witnessing the birth of a super cycle.
The US Cryptocurrency Battleground
Political parties' attitude
Republicans are generally positive about cryptocurrencies, while the Biden administration and the SEC have traditionally been hostile to them. However, there have been signs of change recently through multiple cryptocurrency ETFs.
Democratic Party shift
Recently, multiple Democratic members of Congress and the Senate voted to repeal SAB Order 121, which had previously imposed significant restrictions on financial institutions’ exposure to Bitcoin ($BTC). The move marks a shift in the Democratic Party’s attitude toward cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin Accounting Rules
Another major development is the long-awaited release of Bitcoin accounting standards. FASB’s Bitcoin fair value rules will take effect in 2025, which may prompt more companies to use Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset.
The 2024 US election will be an important turning point in the cryptocurrency market.
