The day before yesterday [July 9th Teaching Chain Insider: Multiple signs indicate that the bull market is coming back] shared a hundred opinions on this round of BTC correction. The comprehensive conclusion is consistent with the main view of Teaching Chain in recent times, that is, the so-called liquidation pressure of governments is actually limited, and it is just the material used by short sellers to make profits. Just like there is no fish in fish-flavored pork shreds, no husband and wife in husband and wife lung slices, and no wife in wife cakes, don’t really think that the things promoted in the media are really the main ingredients of this dish just because they hear the name of the dish.
This round of bull market came too early. If you get up too fast, you may feel dizzy and fall down. According to the calculation of previous cycles, the bull market should have started at the end of 2024, the beginning of 2025, or even in the middle and late 2025. But this time, it broke through the previous high of 69,000 US dollars in 2021 in early 2024. If we follow one of the industry's common bull market definition methods, that is, "breaking the previous high", we can think that this round of bull market has officially started on March 11, 2024.
As we all know, this bull market started early thanks to two things: first, there was a double-headed bull market in 2021, which led to a significant reduction in the "previous high"; second, the US BTC spot ETF was approved, causing a large amount of funds to flow in, accelerating the upward movement of BTC. As a result, this bull market was brought forward by a whole year.
How exaggerated is the lead time for entering the bull market this time? You really don’t know until you see it. It’s shocking. The following is a picture drawn by a netizen. The blue strip in the picture is the bull market trend range of the previous cycles, which is converted to this round in proportion. The red curve is the development of this round of bull market. Jiaolian uses red arrows to indicate the location of the "breakthrough of the previous high" to readers.
From the picture, you can see how the market "teases" humans who try to beat it:
Previously, a large number of old investors, veterans, and KOLs generally formed a "consensus" that they should take advantage of the "halving" in April when BTC "must" plummet and "buy the bottom" of BTC. After all, before the halving in 2020, the "312" crash and the collapse of BTC left an indelible impression on many old investors who experienced that thrilling event. Look at the blue strip in the picture, which quickly approached the power law support line below in March. What's more terrifying is that in the past few cycles, almost at this point in time, they were crawling close to the bottom line.
The stronger the stereotypes and fixed thinking are, the more the market will slap you in the face. Look at the red curve in the picture. It is around the time when the past few cycles were "good opportunities to buy at the bottom", but this cycle happened to create a breakthrough of the previous high, a new historical high, and BTC stood at 70,000 dollars!
Bargain hunting? Dream on! There will be no discounts for the “halving” this year, so I’ll sell them at a higher price! Hahaha~
At this moment, Jiaolian truly felt that BTC was like a high-dimensional life form with an intelligence level far higher than that of humans. "When humans think, God laughs." At this moment, BTC is like the laughing God, looking at the cute and silly people who are racking their brains to get some advantages, but their IQ level is like that of kindergarten babies.
This year, not only is there no discount, but the price has actually increased. How much more expensive is it? Let's take a look and make an estimate.
Please note that this graph is a linear coordinate system. When the price hit a record high of over $70,000, the bottom line was about $30,000. With this rough estimate, it is probably twice as expensive!
But what can you do? If you add more positions, you are afraid of losing money. If you don’t add more positions, you are afraid of missing out on this bull market. It’s a dilemma.
Jiaolian often says that a bull market is a time to lose money. The reason is that a bull market will greatly increase your cost of adding positions. High costs mean that you don’t buy well enough. And it is extremely difficult to sell well. When you don’t sell well enough, you need to buy well to make up for it. If you still don’t buy well, then the outcome is likely to be a loss, and you have to admit defeat and leave.
Those who have an impression must remember that in March, many newcomers came into the market! At this time, we should know in our hearts that they are all here to lose money.
Whether you are a new investor or an old investor, if you add positions after the bull market starts, you must be prepared to be beaten. If you are not prepared and start crying when your position suffers a little loss, then your mentality is not suitable for secondary market investment. It is less painful to deposit in a fixed deposit.
If the stock market’s awareness is “cut in half”, then the currency market’s awareness should be at least “cut in half”, or even “cut to zero”.
Here, only those who face death with equanimity and live towards death are worthy of living and living to the end with a smile on their face.
The quick win theory, the idea of wanting to make money as soon as you enter the market is naive. On the contrary, the surrender theory, that is, since this round of bull market started a year in advance, it will end a year in advance, that is, the view that it will be game over by the end of 2024, is also absurd.
What's even funnier is that the argument given by those who hold the capitulation theory is that the Federal Reserve will start to cut interest rates in the second half of the year. And the interest rate cut will be accompanied by a market collapse, thus sending away the bull market.
You think that the Federal Reserve’s unprecedented interest rate hikes in the past two years have not been able to put away the bull market. Could it be that its shift to easing and restarting the money printing will actually put away the bull market instead of boosting it?
We have always opposed the illusion of a quick victory and criticized the absurdity of the theory of surrender. Only a protracted war is the most correct strategy.
Six months ago, on January 9, 2024, Jiaolian published an article titled "Bitcoin's Big Ups and Downs", introducing readers to the micro details of the skyrocketing journey that began after the gold ETF was passed in 2024: After the ETF was passed and the gold price hit a record high, it fell into a box that fluctuated sideways for 10 months. After a full wash and digestion, it broke through the box again, ushering in an epic bull market.
Slightly different from this trend, after the BTC ETF was listed on January 11, it first hit a local high of 49k, and then dropped to 38.5k on January 23 to wash out a wave of trading before officially starting the ETF bull market. It took one and a half months to break through the historical high and stand at 70,000 dollars on March 11. After that, the confirmation of the historical high did attract a lot of incremental funds, and then it started the sideways shock and wash out without panic.
Obviously, the 49k on the listing day was too ordinary, and the wash effect was not good. So it was pulled to a new high, opening the bull market. Only in this way can the high-level wash be strong enough and comfortable enough. Just like when you massage your feet to loosen the bones, it is boring if it doesn't hurt or itch. It must be painful to scream, that's comfortable. In this way, it can achieve the effect of relaxing muscles and blood circulation and relaxing the whole body.
Referring to the ten-month long wash of the gold ETF, if the BTC ETF's wash is also calculated as ten months, it will take from March to January 2025. Let's look ahead to January 2025, effectively breaking through the box constraints, or even breaking through a key price level, and officially starting this round of bull market.
As luck would have it, this time rhythm just happened to match the rhyme of history! Satoshi Nakamoto is truly a god.
In this way, the so-called bull market launch in March was actually a false move, a sleight of hand, and a false start.
This is called, "When the false is made to be true, the true becomes false; when the non-existent is made to be present, the existing becomes non-existent."
