The German government and Mt. Bitcoin (BTC) price fell to $53,500 due to significant sales by creditors of the Gox exchange. However, BTC showed resistance in on-chain measurements, rallying to $59,000. Large US-based institutional players such as BlackRock and Fidelity maintained strong institutional interest by purchasing spot Bitcoin ETFs despite the price decline.

CryptoQuant's presentation Bitcoin Puell Multiple indicator signals the potential end of the current correction phase in the ongoing bull market. Historically, significant declines in the Puell Multiple have generally followed strong price rallies. After the block reward halving in June 2024, miners' profitability dropped by 7.8% and their daily revenue dropped from $78 million to $26 million. However, based on on-chain data, it appears that we are still in the early stages of a new bull cycle. Cycles in the cryptocurrency market usually begin after the block reward halving and last for more than 500 days on average. Only 79 days have passed since the halving in April, indicating a potentially longer run in this bull cycle.

Santiment's data shows that 566,000 Bitcoin wallets with non-zero balances have decreased since mid-June, and this is due to short-term investors selling. Such declines often occur at market bottoms and have historically presented buying opportunities for patient investors.

Summary and Key Results:

  • The Puell Multiple indicator predicts that a new bull run may begin in the 3rd quarter of 2024.

  • The 30-day and 365-day Bitcoin MVRV indicators are in the negative zone, indicating that there may be buying opportunities.

  • Acquisitions by large institutional players (such as BlackRock and Fidelity) indicate strong institutional interest.

  • Miners' capitulation can highlight market stress, creating long-term investment opportunities.

  • Bitcoin appears poised for a potential price recovery, supported by the Puell Multiple and other on-chain indicators. However, due to continued high volatility and regulatory developments, it is important for investors to remain cautious.

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