$ETH
💥💥"Powell is about to testify in Congress. Can the interest rate cut signal trigger a new market boom?"💥💥
Background overview:
Fed Chairman Powell is about to testify before the Senate Banking Committee, and the market is closely watching his hints about the interest rate cut plan. The recent slowdown in inflation and the slowdown in job market growth have intensified the market's expectations for interest rate cuts.
Market dynamics:
Inflation slowdown: Since June, inflation data has continued to be lower than expected, and CPI is expected to continue to be weak in June, paving the way for interest rate cuts.
Job market:
Although the number of new jobs in June was healthy, the unemployment rate rose to 4.1%, indicating that the market has cooled down.
Powell's focus:
Double-sided risks: Powell emphasized the need to balance reducing inflation and preventing economic slowdown, suggesting that the US economy may be on the verge of recession.
Expectations of interest rate cuts:
The market expects Powell's testimony to reveal a signal of a September interest rate cut and set the tone for the July interest rate meeting.
Background of the congressional hearing:
Political atmosphere:
As the presidential election approaches, the hearing may be more tense, and the questions to Powell will be more pointed.
Policy transparency:
Powell will explain his views on inflation and economic prospects, as well as the future direction of monetary policy.
Market reaction:
Investor expectations: Since June, investors have bet on a rate cut in September and look forward to Powell's testimony to confirm it.
Policy path: If Powell hints at a rate cut, it will lay the foundation for policy adjustments in July and move towards the 2% inflation target.
Fed internal views:
Inflation progress:
The Fed report said that inflation has progressed moderately, and housing market pressure has eased, supporting expectations of rate cuts.
Economist views:
Worried about the risk of recession, it is recommended that the Fed pay more attention to the economy rather than sticking to inflation issues.
Summary: Powell's testimony will be the key to the market's judgment of the Fed's monetary policy, and investors will keep a close eye on its rate cut signals.
