You don’t care who is crashing the market, whether his crashing gets the approval of the exchange and then turns into trading volume. The volume determines the K-line price. So, are all the actions of the main force already contained in this volume and price?
Does the ETF buying data have to be bought with money (trading volume)? Then the amount of money determines the amplitude of the K-line. Everything is determined by supply and demand!
Return to the first principles, return to the essence! Give up those news, the news is for the leeks. The German government is dumping the market. No matter how fast your news is, are you faster than the person in charge of the German government? You only know that he is dumping the market, but the person in charge of Germany is the executor, he knows when to dump the market, can you beat him with news?
The German government has been selling continuously. The actual impact of the market crash is far less than the impact caused by emotions. This is why it is said that bad news is good news if it is implemented, and it will always be bad news if it is not implemented. It is the sword of Damocles! The same is true for Mentougou!
How should the script for the next market situation be written?
The biggest driving forces for future market trends are Ethereum spot ETF and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut!
According to the news, Bitwise has submitted a revised S-1 for the ETF spot Eth, and stated that it will most likely be launched this month. Analysts say that it will most likely be listed this month, and many people in the market also believe that it will most likely be passed at the next US summer hearing, but there is no specific and accurate news.
As for interest rate cuts, the market's current biggest expectations are September and November.
There are several market assumptions:
Assumption 1: ETFs are used in July or August and interest rates are cut in September.
Then there will still be fluctuations and bottoming out in July and August (a small increase before the ETF is passed), and after the interest rate cut and the fake crash, a new big market will start in October.
Assumption 2: ETFs are adopted in any month of July, August, or September, and interest rates are cut in November
Then it is highly likely that the ETF will rise slightly before it is passed, and then fall back briefly after it is passed, and then fluctuate. In September and October, a small rally will be launched again in line with the expectation of interest rate cuts and the funds entering the ETF. After the interest rate cut in November, the market will fall back for 1 to 2 months, and a new big rally will be launched in the first quarter of 2025.
In short, it is unwise to sell the chips now. It seems that the second half of the bull market has not really arrived yet. Comprehensively speaking, there are still many opportunities in the market. From a larger scale, we are experiencing a new bottoming stage. Next, we have to fight against market risks and prepare for long-term operations. At least we must survive in the second half of the year! No contracts, no leverage, make plans for over-the-counter leverage, spot should be based on ETH, supplemented by cottage, and not all warehouse cottage, so as to better fight against the uncertain market changes in the future.
