As economic data shows weakness, the market is lowering expectations of interest rate hikes🥺
With the dataset suddenly downshifting, and standing at-odds with the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow still calling for 5.8%+ GDP, rates markets had a bit of reckoning as 2yr yield craters 16bp and the 2/10s yield curve bull-steepeneed by 7bp. November hiking odds dropped from a high of 47% down to lower 30%, as sell-side banks reported a wrath of short-covering flows throughout the whole day, culimating with a massive squeeze into the 7yr bond auction which came -2bp through the screens at 4.212%, with $95.9bln in bids for a strong 2.66x bid to cover ratio, the strongest since January.
