In April, Solana (SOL) encountered a strong resistance at the $202 level and failed to overcome this level, entering a downtrend. SOL found significant support in the $127 to $131 range near the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $127. Currently, SOL is trading around $141.
37 Percent Depreciation and Falling Wedge Model
In the last three months, SOL lost 37% of its value. During this period, SOL formed a classic falling wedge pattern on the daily chart, signaling a potential reversal. The support provided by the $127-131 range allowed the bulls to test the $154 level. However, these recovery efforts encountered resistance from the 20-day and 50-day EMAs.
200-Day EMA and Historical Downtrend
SOL retested the 200-day EMA level, which it had not tested in nearly nine months, but encountered resistance. Historically, the last time SOL traded below the 200-day EMA it entered a prolonged bearish phase. The current 200-day EMA is moving in line with the $127-131 support range. Maintaining this support level may carry the potential for a short-term recovery.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator shows that there is still a bearish trend on the SOL. In order for SOL to break out of the current compression phase, the MACD lines need to move above zero. According to data from Coinglass, SOL's funding rates have fallen below zero.
Recommendations for Investors
Here are some suggestions for investors:
Watch the $127-131 support range: A close below this range could indicate a long-term decline.
Watch the $154 resistance level: Sustained closes above this level could help buyers advance towards $172.
Watch the MACD indicator: A crossing of the MACD lines above zero can signal a change in momentum.
Check funding rates: Improving these rates could help provide short-term momentum.
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