Original Qiqi Baicaidi Qiqi Baicaidi
Disclaimer: In the investment field, information changes rapidly. I record the stock market and my thinking process in plain language every day. The following content is my observation and thinking and does not constitute any investment advice. All profits and losses have nothing to do with me ☺️
On July 3, SERES announced that it plans to spend 2.5 billion to acquire Huawei’s series of text and graphic trademarks such as Wenjie and AIITO, as well as 44 automobile exterior design patents! After the fermentation over the weekend, this news has basically settled, confirming SERES’s limit down on June 25. I really admire those who ran ahead of the A-share market. Our A-share market is a news market and a policy market as it is said to be!
Sales data for June just passed: In June, a total of 43,000 vehicles of the three models of Wenjie were delivered! Wenjie M9 set a new record, with 17,241 vehicles delivered in June and cumulative orders exceeding 100,000 vehicles. The cumulative sales of Wenjie's new M7 exceeded 110,000 vehicles in the first half of the year, with 18,493 vehicles delivered in June. The cumulative delivery of Wenjie's new M5 exceeded 10,000 vehicles after its launch, with 7,046 vehicles delivered in June. I have to say that Huawei is really awesome. You must know that Seres previously made new energy vehicles by itself, and only sold 13 vehicles in 2021.
Question: The product is selling so well and is experiencing explosive growth, why does Huawei want to sell it?
Recover funds? Of course not. 2.5 billion is a drop in the bucket for Huawei. Huawei's entire R&D investment last year was 164.5 billion. This 2.5 billion is not even a fraction of Huawei's R&D investment!
Is the Wenjie brand only worth this price? Of course not. Let’s do the math. Huawei invested 500 million yuan that year and bought more than 100 billion in June (average price 250,000 yuan). The gross profit was 20%, which is 20 billion. Huawei took 10% of the share, which means 2 billion in revenue in June! So how could Wenjie be worth only this price?
The real reason is probably for compliance! Huawei wants to sell its products overseas to avoid the risk of the United States strangling Huawei in advance. The news of the 2.5 billion yuan sale was made known to everyone just for the Americans to see, to avoid the risk of Huawei’s overseas sales from a legal perspective! And Huawei also said that although the brand has been sold, it is still a strategic cooperation! The implication is that the Americans are not strangling Huawei now, and we will continue to cooperate openly. When we are strangled one day, we will go underground! I really don’t understand those people who sold Seres in advance, they believe everything they hear.
…back to the market…
1. Today, the A-share market was hit hard again! The three major indexes fell across the board, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling 0.93% to close at 2,922 points, getting further and further away from 3,000 points. The turnover of the two markets was 582 billion yuan, and it has been less than 600 billion yuan for four consecutive trading days! The long-distance champion domestic capital ran away 28.8 billion yuan, and the industry sectors fell across the board, with more than 4,800 stocks falling!
2. In the market situation, Kweichow Moutai did not escape the sharp drop today, falling by 2.27%.
Two days ago, Moutai Company controlled the supply, and the bulk Feitian Moutai rebounded to 2,350 yuan. Today, it dropped by 70 yuan to 2,280 yuan. It depends on the next move of Moutai Company, otherwise it will be difficult to stop the decline!
Yangtze Power hit a record high today. Although I hold it and make a lot of profit, I am also afraid of a power stock with a P/E ratio of 49. This shows that there are really no good investment targets in the A-share market. People are all hedging their risks with stocks with high certainty. If the share price of Yangtze Power drops below 20, the bull market of the A-share market will probably come.
3. Retail investors have lost a lot of money. The national team has far outperformed the index in the first half of the year. It's awesome! The "national team" represented by China Securities Finance and China Huijin has increased its holdings by 13.4% this year, and its market value has increased by 358.7 billion. Its main holdings are undervalued central state-owned enterprises. Since the beginning of this year, high dividends such as banks and oil have continued to strengthen, while pulling the five major banks and making profits from securities lending. No matter how many points the index is at, the investment returns of the national team are as good as ever. As a small retail investor, I can only envy.
4. Thanks to Liu Jipeng, Lu Qiyuan, Niu Wenxin, Zhang Tingbin, Cong Yaping, Wan Youshan and other big names for continuing to speak out for retail investors! The Lantian meeting was held enthusiastically in the past two days, and the "Lantian 42 Suggestions" were proposed to provide advice for the healthy development of the A-share market!
The Blue Sky Conference is a discussion platform for the institutional construction of China’s A-share market, where experts and scholars put forward suggestions to solve current A-share problems. There are quite a lot of suggestions this time, mainly about punishing fraudulent listings, abolishing speculative tools such as transfer and financing, reforming the trading system, prohibiting listing of monopoly industries, etc. These are all old problems, and calling for reforms again and again is just a move against the vested interests. I respect the suggestions of the old gentlemen, but I am not optimistic about them.
5. Fraud in the A-share market always leads to bad results! The annual reports of Jiangsu Suning, my hometown, from 2009 to 2021 totaled 10.333 billion in inflated operating income, 9.399 billion in inflated operating costs, and 934 million in inflated total profits; in 12 years, they have fraudulently committed tens of billions, and they even claimed to be victims before! If the "private network communication" business of Shanghai Electric's subsidiary had not been exposed, no one would have known about it! The regulatory authorities have issued a detailed process, and you can go and see it. Being found out is a good thing, but the shareholders who were still trading this stock normally on the last trading day have eaten ST* today. What should they do? How are the parties involved in the fraud (company entity, audit unit, accounting unit, regulatory department, etc.) punished? How to compensate the victim shareholders?
So what if it is labeled as ST*? There is no problem at all. Look at Kangmei Pharmaceutical, which was delisted on July 4th after it falsified 30 billion yuan.
Look at the punishment measures taken by the United States against fraudulent companies, such as delisting and lifetime ban from the market, compensation for investors, punishment of auditing units and accounting firms, etc. There are ready-made homework, is it difficult to copy it?
……Coin circle………
6. Bitcoin plummeted last Friday, and everyone was looking forward to a second bottoming out. It rose slightly to 58,000 over the weekend. Today, it finally reached a second bottoming out of 54,200. The bottom has risen, but it has not exceeded the previous bottom of 53,000. The second bottoming out has released short-term risks, and it will rise slowly next! Because the unemployment rate rose to 4.1% in the non-agricultural data last Friday, the call for the Fed to cut interest rates in September has risen again! Looking forward to the market after September!
7. A small step for cryptocurrency, a big step for mankind. You can now pay for taxis and takeout in Singapore with cryptocurrency!
Grab, Southeast Asia's leading O2O Internet mobile platform, has 120 million users, a built-in web3 wallet, and can be topped up and paid with cryptocurrency. It currently supports top-ups in Bitcoin, Ethereum, SOL, and stablecoins.
Last time I went to Southeast Asia, I brought a VISA dual currency card with me. Next time I come, I don’t need to apply for a visa card. I can pay directly with digital currency. Just thinking about it makes me excited!
8. I saw a distribution map of Bitcoin, which is very interesting. I would like to share it with you.
At present, Bitcoin is mainly held by individuals, and ETFs hold 3.9%, which is still too little. In the future, it will gradually be concentrated in the hands of institutions, gradually professionalized, and U.S. stocks! It is very interesting that 17.6% has been lost (currently worth 220 billion U.S. dollars). In the early days, Bitcoin was not valuable and easy to mine. Many people, including me, lost Bitcoin after mining it (in 2009/10, there were many people mining on their computers at home and on the web. They also gave away Bitcoins when browsing website ads. I remember that one ad gave away 0.001 Bitcoins). Now you regret it!
Finally, Andy Lau held a concert in Shanghai yesterday. He was full of passion throughout the whole performance. During the performance, he slid and knelt on a 6-meter-high platform and almost fell down.
From the animated picture, we can see that half of his knee is hanging in the air. I am worried about Andy! Previously, Jacky Cheung brought his own sound team to his concert in Chengdu. He did not bring any guests and sang all by himself! These artists of the older generation are really dedicated and have slapped the faces of many people in the domestic entertainment industry! As you get older, you will have fewer concerts to perform. Take care of yourself!
The above is my learning and record today. Friendly exchanges are welcome!
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