Explanation of the actual trading thinking logic system (infinite value)
Friends must have heard a nonsense about the market "It may rise, it may fall, and the possibility of sideways trading is not ruled out 😂"
The market mainly has these three situations: main rising wave, continuous decline, high (low) oscillation
Since 2019, the main rising wave market has mainly occurred after the suspension of interest rate hikes and water release, such as the first half of 2019, April 2020 to April 2021, July 2021 to October 2021, and the end of 2023 to March 2024.
Continuous decline mainly occurs in the interest rate hike stage and recession. For example, from April 22 to the end of the year. Early 2020
High (low) oscillation, interest rate cut stage, second stage interest rate hike, suspension of interest rate hike end to interest rate cut. (Note: There are actually increases after the first interest rate cut, but not the main rising wave), such as the second half of 2019, May to July 2021, April to October 2023, and April 2024 to now. .
Of course, this is mainly divided by macro, plus BTC self-narrative (talk about the main), such as CB listing in the first half of 21, futures ETF approval in the second half, and spot ETF approval at the beginning of this year. Note: halving is in the election year. Often the year after the election year, the risk market is a rising period.
With this division, are the opportunities for making money, escaping the top, and bottom-fishing clear at a glance? Because the next step is interest rate cuts, recession or not, and water release, and the market between the moments can be completely reversed. It's nothing more than controlling emotions and greed, and knowing the project valuation.
They are all cycles, and the only thing that can influence the macro cycle of BTC is ETF. This is a matter of the next cycle, so eat the meat next year first.
Still the same sentence: BTC's low point is the low point of the cottage. And the cottage often has only a few main funds for speculation. The previous 53,500 to 58,400.
I have mentioned many times the fast rebound, meme, L1, I won't name them, on Binance, those launched in the last 1-2 years, BOME, WIF, BB, Omni, AxL, etc.
Coincidentally, it has fallen back to 54,300, and the ones that fell sharply are also meme and L1, which rose sharply before.
In the next interest rate cut to water release, AI and games also need attention.
If you want high-return cottage, there are only these four tracks, because they have good liquidity, many narratives, and the dealers have money. It's not that there is no opportunity for others, but the opportunity is not big.If you are looking for stable returns, you can buy BTC or ETH.