Bitcoin plunged again today, breaking through 57,000 directly. Looking back, it had reached a high of 72,000 on June 7. It has fallen 15,000 points in this month. It has been the main bull market.
The reason for the decline is clear. A bunch of wealthy people holding a large amount of BTC took advantage of the bull market to dump the market and cash out. I don’t know if Germany is in crisis or if it is really too expensive to aid Ukraine. These days, thousands of large orders are dumping the market. According to Lookonchain monitoring, the German government transferred another 3,000 BTC (US$174 million) today, of which 1,300 BTC (US$75.5 million) were transferred to Bitstamp, Coinbase and Kraken; it currently still holds 40,359 BTC (US$2.33 billion). It is said that the German government has more than 50,000 coins in total, and it is unknown when it will be finished.
It is said that the US government also has more than 200,000 BTC, which are also being moved every day and slowly shipped. In addition, China has more than 100,000, and North Korea has quite a few, and it is not known whether they are also shipping. The most fucked up thing is that Mentougou is now calling for debt repayment, and there are still more than 140,000 bitcoins in hand. With just these few big players shipping every day, how can bitcoin rise? How much money is there to buy them? Therefore, it is really very difficult to expect this round of bull market to lead the rise with bitcoin as in the past. There have always been several swords of Damocles hanging over the market, who dares to increase their positions?
So if Bitcoin does not rise and keeps falling, does this bull market mean that it is bullish? I think there may be a chance of a turnaround. After all, this is an ETF bull market, and the surging ETF funds are all from the clients of the securities industry. Are the institutions bringing everyone in to be reaped and then leave?
That's not easy to explain to customers! Currently, the net inflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs in the United States alone is 14.6 billion US dollars, and the daily trading volume in Hong Kong is close to 100 million Hong Kong dollars. Everyone is here to make money, not to be harvested. Such a huge influx of funds should theoretically lead to a bull market, but now the bull market of Bitcoin is really hard to pull up. The hundreds of thousands of BTC seized by several governments through fines and other means and the more than 140,000 BTC that Mentougou has to smash to pay off its debts are difficult to digest. With such a huge uncertainty hanging over their heads, no one dares to continue to pull up Bitcoin. Several hundred million US dollars were bought in, and all were exchanged by these old rich people with almost no cost Bitcoin in their hands, and they were withdrawn and left the crypto market, which is equivalent to sucking the liquidity of the crypto market. This is definitely not okay.
Since Bitcoin is unable to carry the bull market banner, but a bull market is necessary, the market will have to look for a new leader to carry the bull market banner. I think it is likely to be SOL. Compared with BTC and ETH, SOL's car is much lighter. Old creditors such as Mt.Gox in Mentougou all hold BTC and BCH. If they want to smash the market, they can only smash BTC and BCH. They can't smash SOL, which appeared after the collapse of Mentougou. The reason why SOL also fell with BTC is due to market makers. Market makers have always regarded BTC as an index of the currency market to make markets. When BTC fell, mainstream altcoins followed suit. Now they find that BTC's decline cannot be curbed, and it makes no sense for other mainstream altcoins to follow suit. As a result, mainstream altcoins began to stop falling. This is a sign that market makers are decoupling the mainstream altcoin market from the BTC market.
From the recent BTC spikes, we can see that the mainstream altcoins are falling less and less, and the bottom of the decline is constantly rising. For example, when BTC fell to around 58,000 last time, AVAX also fell to 23.4, but today BTC has fallen below 57,000, and AVAX has only fallen to 25.4, and it rebounded first. The rebound is obviously stronger than BTC, which shows that funds have absorbed a large number of mainstream altcoins and have the desire to inject funds to lift the price.
Recently, an institution has formally proposed an application for the SOL spot ETF, which has become a hot topic in the market. It also triggered a round of bull market in the past two days. Both SOL and AVAX have rebounded significantly. Funds have found that whether through news or investment, it is much easier to drive a bull market in mainstream altcoins such as SOL than in BTC!
Then, will the bull market gradually shift to a new leader, give up on taking over BTC, and, under the leadership of SOL, start hyping up the SOL spot ETF expectations and enter a mainstream altcoin bull market that is easier to drive? I think the possibility is very high, so let us wait and see.
