Hello, Skyrexians!
Last month was bloody for the crypto market. Bitcoin dumped from $70k to $63k, altcoins have completely dead and broke the belief for the altseason. We suppose that now nobody wants to hear anything about altseason and crypto. Most of traders has -50-60% portfolio loss and even cryptocurrency trading platforms which are using the automated trading bot faced with the huge losses. Will this dump continue or now is the reversal point and the forbidden word "altseason" can be said again in the nearest future? Let's try to understand!
Bitcoin weekly time frame analysis
First of all let's take a look at the 1W time frame using our cryptocurrency trading strategy. This timeframe is good to describe current bull run with the Elliott waves. The first we shall do is to find the highest high on the Awesome oscillator. This top corresponds to the recent top at $73k. Therefore, there is a high probability that now price is printing the wave 4.
We have the minimal requirement to finish this wave is the cross of the zero line by Awesome oscillator. We need to see much more candles for this crossover. It means that wave 4 will be finished at least in September. The good news that target price has been already reached or almost reached, that's why we don't expect the significant drop from here. 0.38-0.5 Fibonacci retracement from wave 3 is enough to finish this correction. It means that max drop is possible to $49k. When the reversal bar will be printed there correction is gonna be over.
After that the major wave 5 is expected which can reach 85-107k depends on if it's gonna be extended or not. We will have more precise target when this wave be in progress. Then the bull run is gonna be finished and the next bear market can potentially be huge, but now it's too early to talk about it.
Is wave 3 really finished?
The price chart below answers this question. Like usual Bitcoin has prepared a trap for us. We expected $77k before this drop as the wave 5 inside 3, but it seems that wave 5 was shortened. Awesome Oscillator showed the early divergence which should be under consideration.
What does it mean? It means that dump from $72k to $53k is just a wave A inside wave 4.
When correction will be over?
Currently Bitcoin is in wave 4. This is the most difficult wave for traders, it will take time to be finished. As we can see now, the Wave A is over, bullish reversal bar has been already printed on the 1D time frame. Now it's time for bull trap in wave B. Its target is inside 0.5-0.61 Fibonacci retracement area. This is $64k price level. There we have to look for the bearish setup and be prepared for another one dump. This dump will likely set the lower low, as we pointed out earlier, it's max target $49k. When ABC cycle will be finished we are ready for the growth to the final bull run ATH in this cycle. Be patient!
Conclusion
Despite the overall bearish sentiment and the fear on the market we expect the increase in price soon. In general, dump is not over, but its most active part is finished. You can see now a lot of bears which prints for you double top pattern, telling us that game is over. Don't pay attention to emotions which you have. We tried to bring you enough arguments that this bull run is not over. Next time we will make an update on altcoins, subscribe us and never miss the valuable analysis.
Best regards,
Skyrex Team
