The market is like a tide, but human nature remains unchanged. In the past few years, the fluctuation of Bitcoin (BTC) prices has attracted the attention and controversy of many investors. Since 2018, the price of BTC has gradually fallen, and people continue to have different predictions about the market trend. Whether it is the end of 2018 or the end of 2022, every time BTC falls to a certain level, there are always people who think it will continue to fall.#BTC ​

This is due to human greed and fear. We always want to buy at a lower price and leave at a higher price. However, in actual operation, there are very few people who can really buy at the bottom. So, why does this happen? $BTC

First of all, we need to refer to some indicators to make a bottom-fishing decision. The K-line indicator is one of them. By comparing with historical cycles, such as the lows of MACD, KDJ and RSI indicators, we can draw some reference opinions. Sentiment indicators are also important considerations. When market sentiment deteriorates extremely and everyone generally believes that it will continue to fall, it is a good time to bottom-fish. In addition, time indicators also have a certain degree of reliability. The crypto market has a bull-bear conversion cycle every 4 years, and we can make judgments based on this rule.

However, even if you master these indicators, it is not possible to accurately buy the bottom. Market fluctuations are not only affected by technical indicators, but also by many other factors. Therefore, buying the bottom is not simply buying at the lowest point, but more importantly choosing the right time and making a good plan. For example, if we believe that the price of BTC will rise to more than 60,000 in two years, then how much difference does it make to buy between 25,000 and 20,000 now?

Of course, I have already put forward some opinions on the current market trend. The market in the second half of the year will mainly be volatile to digest the gains in the first half of the year, and it is unlikely to fall below 20,000 under normal circumstances (unless a black swan event occurs). If there is a chance to fall below 20,000, it will be a historic low point. You can buy in batches and hold patiently to go through the entire cycle, and making money will become easy and comfortable.

Now, let's see if the current phase of the market is coming to an end. The data will tell us the answer. We can look at the S&P 500 Shiller P/E ratio, which is currently close to 30 and reached around 33 before the previous big drop.

The rotation of US stocks has not yet been completed, and the adjustment of BTC is also carried out in parallel. The highest Shiller P/E ratio of the S&P 500 has reached 38. In the past 25 years, it has only exceeded 35 twice, namely during the Internet bubble in 2000 and a financial crisis. Therefore, the current P/E ratio is at a relatively rare level, which may indicate that a medium-sized financial crisis similar to that in 2000 is about to occur. Therefore, we need to prepare the following strategies:

For those who already hold coins, if the P/E ratio quickly rises to above 35, it is an opportunity to escape. However, it is unlikely to fall directly. The stock swap has not yet been completed. It may need a false boom of rising prices to make the P/E ratio rise above 35, and then large institutions will swap positions and hand over coins to retail investors. Only then will there be a sharp fall in line with the black swan panic, and then the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates to save the market, thus ushering in a big bull market. Therefore, we should control at least 3 layers of short positions, and wait for the black swan event to occur or wait for the right side to start cutting interest rates to save the market, and then get on board, and then earn the profits of the bull market stage.

For those who do not hold or have a small position, do not be too anxious. You can forcefully enter the market to take some bottom positions, or wait for the market to surge and then cooperate with the black swan to fall. When the index drops below 25, or the price of Bitcoin drops below 25,000, gradually build more positions. After the layout of this round of bear market is completed, there will be a big bull market after the interest rate cut. At that time, we don't need to worry too much, the coins in the account will automatically make money for us. Just seize the opportunity when the time is right, and don't rush to make a small profit and escape the market.

Remember, "Don't wait for a bear market with a completely empty position". No matter how pessimistic the market is, we must maintain a long-term optimistic attitude. Only in this way can we get greater returns on our investment journey.