Blockchain-based betting platforms like Polymarket and Manifold operate with limited legal backing in the United States.
Still, their unique feature enables users to place bets on various subjects.
While the accuracy of prediction markets in gauging election probabilities is debatable, they still serve as an intriguing gauge of public sentiment.
To summarize, the odds offered by blockchain bettors remained relatively stable following Wednesday's debate.
However, crypto betting platforms reveal that Vivek Ramaswamy has surged ahead of Florida Governor Ron DeSantis in the past week, emerging as the leading contender to challenge Trump.
Despite its U.S. illegality for betting, Polymarket, the largest blockchain-based prediction market, has attracted nearly $5 million in bets regarding the Republican nomination race.
Though Polymarket's GOP betting lines haven't shifted significantly since the recent debate, heightened betting activity and volatility are expected as the 2024 presidential race unfolds due to the substantial investment in the platform.
Presently, Donald Trump holds a clear lead on Polymarket, aligned with most polls.
In prediction markets, higher voting costs signify a higher perceived likelihood of a particular outcome. On Polymarket, betting 71 cents in favor of a second Trump nomination earns $1 if he wins, while betting 32 cents against yields nothing upon his loss.
Polymarket's data suggests DeSantis's debate performance didn't drastically alter his position, as his support dipped from 14 to 12 cents in the past week.
During the debate, entrepreneur and political newcomer Vivek Ramaswamy garnered praise for distinguishing himself among well-known politicians.
On Polymarket and general prediction markets, Ramaswamy enjoys a lead over DeSantis in the race for the GOP nomination. Over the week, bets favoring Ramaswamy rose from 13 to 16 cents.
While Ramaswamy's pro-Bitcoin stance might explain his popularity on platforms like Polymarket, his lead in the secondary race is also evident in polling and conventional betting markets.
