The underlying foundation of the cryptocurrency world is asset issuance, which is essentially a form of gambling.
1. Casino explosion after ETH
$ETH is the most successful asset issuance. Although it is slow, from ICO to NFT, and then to the ERC20 ecosystem, gambling methods have emerged in an endless stream, but after several years, they finally became exhausted.
And when the ETH model was successful, hundreds of public chains were listed, from $EOS $DOT to $SOL, and then to $ARB $OP, which actually provided hundreds of new casinos.
These new casinos have no innovation in their gameplay. What is done in the new casinos that claim to be the fastest can actually be done in the old casinos - especially now that the GAS is only 1, and it can even be done more safely.
While the number of gamblers in the entire region has not increased, the total amount of funds used to purchase chips in casinos has only increased slightly compared to the peak of the bull market in 2021, from 136 billion to 150 billion.
What’s even more interesting is that every new casino still charges membership fees. The owners and developers build the casinos and invite all gamblers to buy my casino pass. Although it has no value, there may be other gamblers who want to speculate on it.
2. Casinos are booming, but gamblers are decreasing
Now, we can see a situation:
From 2021 to now, 300 new public chain casinos have been opened, and each of them has launched its own casino pass gambling, but what each casino does is basically the same as the old casinos: DEX, lending and MEME, there is nothing new.
The key point is that the number of gamblers has not increased, but decreased. According to the GOOGLE index, we can see that the number of people paying attention to BTC and ETH is much less than expected, which is basically the same as in a bear market. This seemingly grand BTC bull market has not attracted much attention from people. Even before and after the ETF was passed, it was only slightly better than the deep bear market.
As for the search volume of ETH, I would have thought that it would be higher due to the expectation of ETF approval, but it seems not to be the case. It is very low - therefore, perhaps the situation after ETH's ETF approval has already been largely PRICE IN.
I still remember that in April I conducted several surveys on Twitter, and what I found was shocking was that the proportion of full positions and 80% positions was relatively high. I conducted several different surveys on multiple platforms, including internal WeChat groups, and the overall results tended to be consistent.
The proportion of fully invested is around 70-80%. In retrospect, this survey is still very meaningful - because if everyone is on the bus, waiting for the altcoins to pull up, and I have already calculated the terrifying selling pressure of altcoins from multiple angles in previous articles, for example, the selling pressure was 3 billion in May, and it should be around 2 billion in June, and it will continue to grow in the future.
3. Why did the copycat market suffer such a heavy loss?
Because from project parties, market makers to exchanges and retail investors, everyone knows that altcoins are a speculative game, and of course MEME is even more so. So when everyone is on the bus, as long as the price doesn’t rise, it will be dangerous for the altcoins.
Investing is about making friends with time, while holding altcoins is the enemy of time.
This may be why I think it is not advisable to participate in any staking. If you participate, you will easily become a person who provides profits. For example, those who participated in RBN staking were severely cheated by the dealer - this coin pulled up AEVO, deceived people to pledge, deceived @heyibinance, and cut the leeks. As for whether the subsequent project will be successful, it is no longer important.
Countless mountain villages are surging on the road, and the air in every one of them is warmly inviting you to get on board, but the donkey that was running blindly is now overwhelmed, and its steps are weak and scarred, and it really can't keep up.
The ingenious model of low circulation and high FDV, coupled with the coincidental intensive issuance of coins in the bull market, has been met with the skinny and pale-eyed leeks, and the scene is horrible.
4. Is “One Yang Changes Three Views” outdated?
A traditional view is that "one yang changes three perspectives", but I think this saying has actually become outdated a long time ago without being noticed.
A few years ago, people were still in the naive period of first love, and pumping the price was indeed the most effective approach. But this year, if you have played on-chain MEME, you will find that pumping the price can attract attention, but more and more people can calmly look at the project party's solo pumping of the price.
It’s not that the leeks have become smarter, but that they are really scared of being cut. Behind the change of three views due to one positive move, the three views can only be formed if there is a long-term upward trend. But now if you look for all the currencies on the entire network, it is difficult to find the grand occasion of a bunch of hundred-fold coins like Binance in 2021. Basically, you should be thankful if Binance can increase its value by one or two times.
As for the on-chain, let alone, the life of a MEME can be as short as a few minutes or as long as a few days. It can be hyped up one second and withdrawn from the pool the next.
Because too many people have been cut, some people have summed up the typical rule of this bull market, that is, no one takes over from each other.
Therefore, behind the expectation of "one yang changes three views", we should think about three questions:
If you are a banker, when the investors are cautious and fearful, how sure are you that your price manipulation will not turn into selling by others?
If you are a leek, are you sure that the banker is super rich and has a vision, and only pulls up the market instead of crashing it, which shows that he is full of love for the world? Maybe he also wants to run first.
If you are a VC, and your chips worth 10x-100x are finally unlocked, are you willing to wait for the project party to take action, the market makers to pull the price, and the retail investors to FOMO, or just sell them directly on the spot?
If everyone thinks this way, it will be difficult to copy, and it will become a highly tense game of running away from the poison.
5. Future Deduction: AI Vampire Coin Circle
There will be a copycat bull market, such as the overflow of funds after the interest rate cut, but that will take a long time. But by that time, 90% of the current project parties will usher in a huge amount of unlocking, and it is estimated that more than 5 billion will be unlocked every month - and the market will find it difficult to handle the selling pressure of 5 billion. I can see it, and others can see it too.
This will cause the market to run faster, and the people who are most qualified to run are the chips locked by VCs and project parties. So considering that more and more project parties have unlocked chips since March of this year, this will cause the copycat to be a complete game of running fast, and those who run slowly will fall into the poison circle.
Conclusion 1: If you want to play, it seems that you can only play with large coins such as BTC, ETH, or participate in altcoins with very sensitive movements.
The key point is, it is better to earn less than to suffer a big loss - be cautious when getting on the train, and don't sell it unless it falls sharply. If you are trapped or the momentum is not right, just observe first, and remember to cash in the profits continuously after making money.
This strategy really tests your sense of the market, but assuming that the market still has opportunities to go up, then the mainstream coins will definitely not be bad, and the risks will be relatively smaller. If you can sell them quickly, you will earn less, but you will not suffer a big loss.
What if we enter a bear market? That would be a disaster for everyone, nothing more.
I seldom do short-term trading myself, so it is actually quite difficult for me to judge these things. The way to overcome this difficulty is to control your position. Hold the U firmly, and don't go in and out with your full position when you get on the train. It will be much easier if you go in and out a little bit at a time.
Conclusion 2: If there are no new casinos opened in the cryptocurrency circle and there is no new traffic, the future deep bear market will be even more terrifying.
After the BTC ETF is passed, BTC will become a target of the U.S. stock market and a high-risk risk asset. However, at present, its attractiveness is far less than that of U.S. technology stocks. Nvidia continues to set new highs, and Apple, Microsoft, GOOGLE, etc. continue to move upward.
There is actually a major logical change behind this - the time when the cryptocurrency market was booming is over.
A math problem:
You can think of ETH as "innovation at the level of human civilization", but unfortunately, it only has a few valuable applications such as DEX and lending. Other things, such as the leading PREP DEX, may have a few hundred daily active users, so this thing is really a bit far from "achieving innovation at the level of human civilization".
This thing is now worth 400 billion.
Musk's Tesla is now worth 500 billion. It is a multi-faceted giant that will include the future global autonomous driving system + artificial intelligence robots + massive AI data.
Looking at BTC again, we in the currency circle can shout casually: Bitcoin will be worth 1 million US dollars in the future!
But friends, after entering the U.S. stock market, the current market value of BTC is 130 million. If it doubles, it will almost be on par with Nvidia - and now Nvidia is generally regarded as the cornerstone of the AI era, and the AI era is considered to be the third largest civilization-level leap after the steam revolution and the Internet.
Not to mention $1 million, even if it rises to more than $100,000, it seems unreasonable to surpass Nvidia.
Now let's summarize:
1. The valuations of some projects are not low. Compared with the value targets of US stocks, the valuations of the top value coins BTC and ETH in the cryptocurrency circle are not low.
2. Ecosystem projects have huge bubbles. Ecosystem projects in the cryptocurrency circle generally have huge bubbles and huge selling pressure. People are not sober and stop playing with altcoins, but they are playing with MEME because they are tired of playing with altcoins.
The market value of altcoin is 10 billion, there are 30 active people on the chain, and there is a selling pressure of 500 million every month waiting for you to digest. Where is the value?
3. MEME is unsustainable.
MEME is consensus and emotion, and PEPE is the most eye-catching representative among them. However, after rising to billions of dollars, if you want to go up again, the amount of funds required will become larger and larger. Without the massive funds in 21 years and top KOLs like Musk who can come close to each other and rely on the community to shout 100 billion to each other - I have seen this too many times among NFT family groups, and every time, the one who shouts the loudest gets the most cut from me.
As everyone knows, I love MEME the most, because I am personally most sensitive to emotions, communities, markets and narratives, so I make a lot more money from it than from value coins. But precisely because I understand MEME, I don’t think MEME can carry a round of copycat bulls.
The more speculative the sentiment of MEME is and the more fanatical its participants are, the more devastating the collapse will be. Please believe this; this is the objective law of this world.
4. AI will continue to suck blood. The AI narrative of the US stock market attracts big funds from all over the world. They are revolutionizing, and all this will continue in the context of low value and high bubble in the currency circle.
What if the U.S. stock market crashes? Sorry, the cryptocurrency world will only crash even worse.
The final sentence summarizes: The approval of ETH ETF will only be a short-term positive. The combined efforts of the above-mentioned parties will most likely force the market to move in the direction of least resistance.
#reply Daewoo
At the current stage, I suggest that everyone exchange some of the high FDV altcoins in their hands for ETH, BTC, BNB, and SOL.
If the ETH ETF rises as expected, some altcoins may not follow the market to rebound. It is very likely that ETH will dance alone, just like BTC in the first half of the year!
If you don’t know what to do now, just click on my avatar to visit my homepage, and let’s get through the darkest moment of the cryptocurrency world together.
