A bombshell report from The New York Times has shaken up the political betting scene. Traders on Polymarket temporarily ramped up the odds of President Joe Biden dropping out of the 2024 race to 77% on Wednesday.
This wild surge is the climax of a chaotic week in Polymarket’s “Biden drops out of presidential race?” bet, which has drawn close to $10 million in bets. Prior to last week’s debate with Donald Trump, the odds were only 20%.
As of press time, the odds have settled at 63%.
Source: Polymarket
Biden’s face-to-face meeting with Vice President Kamala Harris on Wednesday has only added fuel to the speculation. More polls are showing him losing ground to Trump, and there are growing rumors that Harris might replace him in the race.
Biden’s closed-door lunch with Harris at the White House happened just hours before he met with over 20 influential Democratic governors.
This group included California governor Gavin Newsom, Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer, and Illinois governor JB Pritzker, all seen as potential successors if Biden steps down.
Pressure mounts on Biden
These high-stakes talks with key Democrats came just days after Biden’s poor performance in the debate. This has caused panic within the party about his ability to compete against Trump in the upcoming election.
Both the White House and Biden’s campaign have firmly stated that he will stay in the race. However, the pressure on Biden is mounting, with new calls from within the party for him to drop out. Recent polls show a sharp decline in support for his candidacy.
A group of moderate Democratic House members focused on national security has drafted a letter urging Biden to withdraw from the race, according to someone familiar with the effort.
Reportedly, many Democratic lawmakers are privately considering signing this letter, pushing for Biden to step aside. Adding to this, Arizona Democratic Congressman Raúl Grijalva publicly called for Biden to suspend his re-election bid on Wednesday. He stated:
“This is an opportunity to look elsewhere. What [Biden] needs to do is shoulder the responsibility. Part of that responsibility is to get out of the race.”
Massachusetts Congressman Seth Moulton also voiced his concerns, saying he had “grave concerns” about Biden’s chances against Trump. “President Biden is not going to get younger,” Moulton added. “We should have all viable options on the table.”
The impact of Biden’s debate performance cannot be understated. Polls from The New York Times, CBS, and The Wall Street Journal, all conducted after the debate, show a noticeable drop in support for Biden.
The data has intensified the debate within the Democratic Party about the best way forward.
Reporting by Jai Hamid
