In a YouTube video by Eric Krown Crypto, the worst-case scenario for BTC price in this month has been discussed. The analysis considers some key metrics like moving averages, stochastics indicators, and historical trends to predict where the price of Bitcoin is headed in July
In June, the price of Bitcoin closed above the 5-exponential moving average (EMA) on CME, which stands at 6,325, slightly above the 6,259 level.
Eric believes that as long as Bitcoin stays above the 5 EMA with a positive slope, it indicates a bullish market. Historically, closures below this moving average are rare and typically followed by recoveries.
Worst-Case Scenario for July
The analyst thinks Bitcoin might experience a sideways movement and could get very boring, similar to previous summers. However, it is expected to start its next major move by September.
The 5-day stochastic indicator suggests a high probability of a downside move. Historical results indicate about an 80% likelihood of a significant move when this setup occurs.
The downside move could result in a price drop to around 47,000 USD by the end of July or early August, based on volatility expansion and historical trendlines.
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Historical and Technical Indicators
Based on data from the 5-Day Stochastic and volatility, there is a downside bias with the next major move likely to be downwards. Volatility is expected to expand soon, leading to significant price changes.
The monthly HPDR Bands show that the median price for Bitcoin is expected to be around 47,000 USD. This level acts as a magnet for price action, especially if Bitcoin trades sideways above 60,000 USD.
The electrical cost to produce a Bitcoin is approximately 47,000 USD. Historical trends show Bitcoin prices often align closely with production costs during significant market moves.
Probable Market Movements
The most likely scenario for Bitcoin price is a boring sideways movement throughout July, with potential minor bounces to 63,000 or 64,000 USD.
However, if Bitcoin fails to maintain its current support levels, it could drop sharply to the mid-upper 40,000 USD range. A bounce followed by a rejection at higher levels (63,000 – 65,000 USD) would confirm a bearish trend.
Maintaining prices above current lows would be the best outcome for bulls. If Bitcoin dips below June’s lows (around 58,500 USD on CME), it could trigger a more significant downtrend.
A bounce back above 65,000 USD in August or September could set the stage for a positive trend in Q4.
Conclusion
Based on the analyst’s short-term expectation, the price action of Bitcoin could be boring and potentially bearish in July with a higher probability of downside moves.
However, in the long term, Eric expects a recovery and bullish trends towards the end of Q3 and the beginning of Q4, especially if significant support levels are maintained.
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