In August 1919, the famous economist Keynes borrowed several thousand pounds to engage in forward foreign exchange speculation. After only four months, he had fully doubled his profit. He was so happy that he borrowed money again to increase his investment. However, three months later, he lost all the money he had earned and the principal he borrowed.

Seven months later, Keynes got involved in cotton futures trading again. This time, he was very successful. Not only did he make a lot of money, he also discovered an important theory in investment psychology - the "Boss Fool Theory"

The "Boss Fool Theory" means that in the capital market, people will completely ignore the true value of a certain commodity and are willing to pay a high price to buy it because they expect that a fool will buy it from them at a higher price. In this regard, Keynes gave an example about the famous scientist Newton:

In 1720, a con man in England founded a leather bag company. From beginning to end, no one knew what the company actually did. But affected by the speculative frenzy at the time, when the company issued shares, nearly a thousand investors rushed to crowd the door. Not many people believed in the company's stock valuation, but they all expected that bigger fools would appear, the price would rise, and they would make money. Interestingly, the great scientist Newton also participated in this speculation, and eventually became the biggest fool among them.

The difference between speculation and investment is that the key to speculation is not to predict the value of the investment object, but to determine whether there is a bigger fool than yourself. As long as you are not the biggest fool, profit is not a problem. Of course, if you can't find a fool willing to pay a higher price to buy the item, then the person who ultimately owns the item is the biggest fool. In fact, everyone understands this truth, even in the craziest era of capital speculation. , ask any speculator, and he will not believe that the capital market will prosper forever. But if you ask people again whether they will continue to trade in stocks or speculate, the answer is surprisingly consistent: they will definitely continue!

On the one hand, we know that eating this "cheap lunch" will not always go well, and we will probably choke, but on the other hand, we still eat desperately. What is the reason? The reason is very simple, everyone is "playing stupid" .

In the stock market, the "Being Fool Theory" is particularly evident, and has even been extended to a "Fool winning strategy" called "Fool Wins Fool", which is to buy stocks at high prices and wait until the market rises to a profitable level. Sell. This "stupid strategy" believes that "there are high prices above high prices, and there are low prices below low prices." The rules of the game are also very simple, just like beating a drum to pass flowers. As long as the person who doesn't get the flowers when the drum beats stops, he will make a profit.

It can be said that the most important truth that the "Bosses of Fools Theory" tells people is that in this world, being stupid is not terrible. The most terrible thing is to be the last "fool".

In fact, the behavior of playing fools can be divided into two categories, one is emotional playing fools, and the other is rational playing fools. The so-called perceptual gambling means that when you act, you do not know that you have entered a "stupid game", and you do not know the rules and inevitable outcome of the game. The rational investor who plays fools clearly knows the "rules of playing fools". He just believes that under the current situation, more and more foolish investors are about to intervene, so he invests a small amount of money to take a gamble.

In the speculative market, the vast majority of speculators are rational and stupid, so it is particularly important to judge the public psychology. The real high point of the market will come when the public generally feels that the current price is too high and needs to withdraw from the sidelines. "It's important to be stupid, not the stupidest." This is easy to say, but not easy to do, because it is not easy to judge whether there are more stupid people. If you are not careful, a rational fool player may become the biggest fool more easily than an emotional fool player, because the emotional fool player enters the fool game unknowingly and will retreat immediately if something is wrong, while the rational fool player will retreat immediately. Fools make it clear that they want to play with fire or walk a tightrope. Once they make a mistake in judgment, they will be doomed.

Therefore, if you want to participate in Bo Fool, you must fully research and analyze the market conditions and public psychology, and control your mental state.

Therefore, when entering the capital market, you must clearly distinguish whether you are investing or speculating. No one likes to be seen as a fool, but once you choose to participate in speculation, you are actually putting yourself among the "fool candidates."