Last Friday, the U.S. core PCE price index recorded an annual rate of 2.6% in May, the smallest increase since March 2021. Traders increased their bets on the Fed's interest rate cuts, and the Nasdaq 100 index broke through 20,000 points for the first time during the session. The big cake bottomed out and rebounded.
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The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) has warned consumers about a surge in social media investment scams, especially cryptocurrency investments. These scams involve fraudulent information claiming to guarantee high returns and little risk. The FTC advises against such information and reminds consumers that all investments have inherent risks. The warning was written by Andrew Rayo, a consumer education expert at the FTC, who said that breaking information about investments on social media is almost always a scam. The U.S. Treasury Department has released the 2025 Cryptocurrency Transaction Tax System, which aims to establish filing rules for digital asset brokers. The relevant rules for DeFi and non-custodial wallets have been temporarily shelved. Under the new rules, the IRS will not require reporting of most regular stablecoin sales, and set an annual threshold of $600 for NFT gains, which needs to be reported above this threshold. Musk said that XAI's GROK2 large model will be launched in August. Coinshares data shows that investors invested about $2.6 billion in BTC funds in the second quarter, and about $13 billion in the first three months of this year. Certik data shows that the Web3 field lost about $198.3 million in June due to vulnerability exploits, hacking and scams. Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, said that the miner capitulation indicator has reached a level comparable to December 2022: a drop of 7.6%. December 2022 marks the bottom of the cycle after the FTX crash. According to Bitcoin Magazine data, last Friday, the inflow of US BTCETF reached US$75 million, with net inflows for four consecutive days, which may indicate the return of the bull market. According to The Block data, as of June 28, the negative premium rate of Grayscale ETHE is now 1.29%.
OnChain analysis said that on-chain data showed that BTC's potential positive power was at $65,000. This decline has put the price far below the total cost basis of $65,000 for widely tracked short-term BTC holders. Short-term holders are now facing losses or holding deficit positions and may try to exit the market at a loss or break-even, which may increase selling pressure near $65,000. According to data from research firm Kaiko, the proportion of BTC traded on weekends this year has dropped to a historical low of 16% (28% in 2019). Spot BTC ETF funds appear to have changed the BTC trading schedule to make it more consistent with the schedule of traditional stock exchanges and reduce BTC price volatility. The proportion of BTC traded between 3 pm and 4 pm on weekdays rose to 6.7% from 4.5% in the fourth quarter of 2023. This period of time is called the benchmark pricing window. ETF owners will determine the price of Bitcoin during this period and then use it to calculate the net asset value of the ETF. On the last trading day of the U.S. stock market in June, BTC spot ETF inflows reached $75 million. The U.S. BTC spot ETF has accumulated a net inflow of $14.525 billion since its launch. According to investment institution QCP Capital, BTC rebounded from the $60,000 area to $6.37, opening the first trading day of the second half of the year, and BTC spot ETF inflows continued to recover. From a seasonal perspective, BTC's median return in July was 9.6%, especially after experiencing negative growth in June. It is expected that BTC may rise after the launch of the ETH spot ETF. All signs point to a bullish July. Last Friday, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission returned the S-1 form to potential ETH ETF issuers, asking them to resolve the issues and resubmit. The issuers have been asked to process these comments and resubmit by July 8, which means that at least one more round of filings will be required before the ETF finally begins trading.
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said, "It looks like we have to postpone the expected listing of the spot ETH ETF until after the holidays, because the holidays will also be relatively idle. The approval process will resume on July 8, and then they will start soon." Last Friday, the U.S. core PCE price index recorded an annual rate of 2.6% in May, the smallest increase since March 2021. Traders increased their bets on the Fed's interest rate cuts. The Nasdaq 100 index broke through 20,000 points for the first time during the session. The low of the previous year was 10,440 points, and the big cake rebounded to $63,000. Strategist Seema Shah said: The PCE data was in line with expectations, which relieved the market. Further deceleration of inflation, coupled with more evidence of a weakening job market, will pave the way for the Fed's first rate cut in September. IG market strategist Yeap Jun Rong said that the latest inflation data is consistent with the market consensus and has basically not affected the current market's expectations that the Fed will start the easing process in September. Morgan Stanley Managing Director Andrew Sheets said that recent CPI and labor market data in the United States and the eurozone have made the bank more optimistic about the prospects of interest rate cuts by the world's two major central banks, and more optimistic about the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank's interest rate cuts in September. Economist El-Erian believes that the economic slowdown has exceeded the expectations of most economists and the Federal Reserve. The more likely mistake is that the Federal Reserve did not start cutting interest rates early enough, resulting in the final rate cut having to exceed the level it should have. In June, the price of Bitcoin fell by about 20% from its high point, and the correction in April and January was also about 20%. Every time the currency market ends a decline and starts a rise, it always makes people happy. It has entered the third quarter, and the old man's expectation is "a flat summer or a negative decline". The potential listing of the Ethereum spot ETF will continue to ease summer anxiety until the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut at the end of the quarter becomes a real bull market rising power and achieves a reversal. Don't worry. #非农就业数据即将公布 #美国5月核心PCE物价指数年率增幅创2021年3月以来新低 #以太坊ETF批准预期
