As you remember, the ETH ETFs themselves were already approved a month ago. Now all that remains is to wait for approval to launch trading in these ETF assets.
SEC Chairman Gary Gensler has already stated that the process of launching ETH spot ETFs is going smoothly without any problems. And the launch date of trading depends on how quickly issuers respond to the regulator’s requests.
And according to one of the most famous news sources, the SEC may approve the launch of spot ETH-ETFs by July 4th. Negotiations between issuers and the regulator are in the final stage - source
📊 Of course, the trading volumes of such an asset will be many times lower than that of $BTC ETF, but perhaps this could become a catalyst for growth, if not the entire market, then at least $ETH and heavily oversold alts.
The cards are stacked up so that it is in the first half of July that the market can probably resume growth.
There are too many important facts pointing to this:
1️⃣ Start of a new quarter
2️⃣ Closing old quarterly options and opening new ones
3️⃣ The past strong correction, which, according to technical factors, indicates its imminent climax.
4️⃣ Launching an ETH ETF?
If the market does not begin to grow in the first 2-3 weeks, then this will indicate only one thing. A major player lays down a continuation of a fall or a sideways move to gain positions.
This means the current marinating will last another 1 quarter until the end of September.
I don’t even want to imagine such a scenario, but let’s keep it in mind.
🕯 Technical analysis
In ETH coin, throughout the current bull market, any prolonged corrections go through the formation of a bullish wedge pattern.
There were 3 of them in total and now the 4th is finishing its formation
Now the price is kept from falling by the long-term moving average MA20w, and the medium-term upward trend line (green line) and long-term moving average MA200d are below current prices.
Quite a strong support zone.
The indicators have cooled to neutral values.
Unlike #BTC, ETH looks more attractive, which was already the case in October 2023.
Recall that ETH was then forming a more massive bullish Wedge, while BTC was trading sideways.
The situation is very similar.
Once again, ETH looks stronger than BTC on the chart, let’s see if this correlation works again.
📚 Result:
If you don’t have a position on ETH and have free cash, then you can take it at current prices or place a grid of orders up to $2900-3100.
Personally, we have almost no cache left 🤷♂️
Yes, BTC has fallen under its trend and has every chance of going to $55,000-52,000 with an immediate buyback, as we talked about in the last post. Thus, BTC will adjust the entire growth of the end of 2023 - all of 2024 to 0.5 Fibo.
🧠 But given that ETH has recently been falling along with BTC by the same amount, then in a negative scenario for BTC, ETH will repeat the scenario by forming a false breakdown of a bullish wedge down followed by an immediate buyback.
Also adjusting all recent growth to 0.5 Fibo.
So if BTC goes to $55,000, ETH will fall to $3,100
And if BTC goes to $52,000, ETH will fall to $2,900.
And of course, the scenario is that we have already completed the correction and it is enough for Bitcoin to make a double bottom to the area of $58,000, and Ethereum to go to the area of $3,200, thereby not even leaving the boundaries of the current figure.
In any case, we have already passed most of the fall.
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