Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas predicts that the S1 document of Ethereum ETF will be approved and then launched next Tuesday, July 2. But I have a different opinion. I think it will be in early August.
The basis is very simple. The Republican National Convention is from July 15 to 18, and the Democratic National Convention is from August 19 to 22.
The Democrat, SEC Chairman Gary is now in a headache. Whenever he is interviewed by reporters, he has to be asked: People say that Biden may lose the election because of you. If you were Gary, what would you do? Now the approval can be fast or slow, and the initiative is in your hands. How should you play?
Intensify communication and pass it quickly in early July to give a gift to the Republican Convention of the opposing party? Or pass it in early August, and your own party will hold a convention. The news and influence are still hot, and everyone can bring it to this hot spot. The representatives will not complain to Biden that Gary's procrastination affects our votes. Instead, they may praise: This old guy knows the timing very well.
Definitely choose the latter.
By the way, Eric said Vaneck has submitted 8-A documents, and Bitcoin ETF passed a week after submission, but I always think, don’t look at Vaneck, you have to look at the big boss BlackRock, Bitcoin submitted 8-A two days in advance.
Last time, Eric analyzed the probability of Ethereum ETF passing, from 30 to 70 to 90, but I always said 100%. Let’s look at this wave, S1 passing time, is Eric accurate or is I always accurate!