The cryptocurrency world is a game of constantly flipping tables, and the current market is: low volatility + long-term shocks + extremely low sentiment
The racetrack-level opportunity that will turn the tables is already brewing

Bitcoin volatility and market trend analysis

Recently, the price of Bitcoin has been falling, but its volatility has reached a critical point
The current volatility is 1.25%
What is this level? Let's analyze it through historical data.

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Historically low volatility times

Since 2018, Bitcoin’s volatility has approached a low volatility state of 1% to 2% at the following seven points in time:

1. The last drop of the bear market in 2018: In the bear market, the price of Bitcoin fluctuated for 91 days. This kind of low-volatility oscillation usually does not exceed three months in the extreme oscillation period of the currency circle.
After 91 days of volatility, Bitcoin experienced a BCH fork and the market fell for two months

2. The bear market bottomed out in 2018:
After the plunge, it fluctuated with low volatility for 105 days, which is also about three months, and then rose from US$3,000 to US$14,000.

3. Recovery after March 12: After 77 days of fluctuations, the price of Bitcoin rose from around US$7,000 to US$64,000.

4. The last bear market: Before the FTX crash, Bitcoin fluctuated for six months, and then the market plummeted.

5. After the FTX explosion: The market fluctuated for only one and a half months, but the price skyrocketed from US$15,000 to US$30,000.

6. August and September last year: After two months of volatility, the price of Bitcoin rose from US$25,000 to US$70,000.

7. Current market: We are also in a low-volatility oscillation phase, which has lasted for more than three months.

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Market characteristics during low volatility phases

Two common features can be seen from these six low volatility periods in history:

1. The volatility period will not exceed three months: In most cases, the market volatility period in a low volatility state will not exceed three months.
2. There must be a trend after the shock: After each shock, there will inevitably be a trend in the market, whether it is a sharp rise or a sharp fall.

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Market Symmetry Analysis

These six time points have certain symmetry:

• Point A: The last drop of the bear market.
• Point B: Bear market bottoming shock.
• Point C: The shock before the bull market starts.

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Current market analysis

At present, our volatility has lasted for more than three months, and the volatility of the market seems to have reached its limit.
Some people may feel that the current fluctuations seem to be quite large, but in fact this is a visual illusion.
Now the price of Bitcoin has reached $60,000. It fluctuates by 10%, or $6,000. It seems like a big fluctuation, but it is actually only 10%.
By comparison, when Bitcoin was trading between $3,000 and $4,000, the volatility at $6,000 was 200%.

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Recent market operation suggestions

In the previous 6 representative low volatility time points, I shared the options operations when FTX exploded on Twitter.
At that time, I bought long and short call options and the market went up.
But before the real direction of the market emerges, we should trade volatility instead of directly betting on ups and downs.
The market's choice of direction after each shock is similar.

If the market is really going down, there will usually be a false signal of an increase, and then the market will start to fall;
If the market is rising, there will also be a false signal of a fall, and then it will start to rise again.
For example, the Defi market in 2020, although it experienced a wave of sell-offs in September, the market eventually started to rise.

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Future Outlook

The current market sentiment is low, and the volatility has reached 1.4%. I think the market is likely to continue to rise. After each low volatility shock, there is often a track-level opportunity. For example:

• 2019: IEO
• 2020: DeFi
• 2023: First wave of LSD inscriptions
• End of 2023: Second wave of inscriptions

Therefore, in the current low volatility phase of the market, we should pay more attention to on-chain narratives and market conditions to seize future investment opportunities.