The news on the weekend was relatively quiet. Bitcoin has entered a new range of fluctuations in the short term, roughly between $25,500 and $26,500. At present, the long-term trend is still in the bottoming stage. Only after the second bottoming can the real bottom of the market be determined. I personally think that Bitcoin may usher in a rebound in the range of $24,700-25,200. At this stage, it is recommended to maintain a wait-and-see attitude and conduct fewer transactions. $BTC
Bitcoin price cycle analysis
Cycle analysis of Bitcoin prices can help us understand trends in the cryptocurrency market. In the world of cryptocurrency, which is full of volatility and uncertainty, it is a challenging task to find reliable evidence of market trends. By studying Bitcoin's historical price cycles and the behavior of short-term and long-term holders, we can better understand the current situation in the cryptocurrency market. #BTC
A recent CryptoQuant report focused on the challenges of existing market conditions and drew insights from past Bitcoin price cycles to better understand the current market situation. The analysis focused on the realized price for holders who held Bitcoin for 1 to 6 months and up to a year to get a comprehensive picture of the health of the market.
The comparison extends to the 2019 cycle, which was marked by the global spread of the coronavirus, which hit the entire financial world hard. During that turbulent period, the maximum loss for Bitcoin holders who held for 1 to 6 months was about 40-45%. Now, the decline for short-term holders hovers between 4-9%, showing that market sentiment is more stable and resilient.
A key aspect of this analysis is the examination of people who hold Bitcoin for 6 to 12 months, which can be an important reference for gauging market trends. This data provides insights into two key factors:
Realized Value Price Ratio: The report delves into the ratio of realized value price of Bitcoin held for one year to the current market price. This metric clearly reflects whether these holders are making a profit or a loss. Since Bitcoin enthusiasts pay close attention to this metric, it helps them determine the profitability of long-term investments in the face of short-term market fluctuations.
Long-term perspective: By studying the price performance of Bitcoin over the past year, we analyze whether market conditions force investors to take a long-term perspective. This observation is important because it reflects the overall confidence in Bitcoin’s trajectory.
The report suggests that in order for the current market to withstand the impact of possible further declines in Bitcoin, Bitcoin holders should increase their realized value. This shift suggests that Bitcoin holders have dual motivations, both to cope with short-term losses and in anticipation of long-term gains. The report shows that the average price is currently relatively stable, but needs to show an upward trend in the coming months. This shift will highlight the dominance of Bitcoin one-year holders and support the long-term bullish outlook for Bitcoin.
However, the report also raises some cautious points. If this key indicator fails to materialize as expected, it will warn that prices may fall sharply in the future. Therefore, market participants must pay close attention to this trend and adjust their investment strategies accordingly.
In the ever-evolving cryptocurrency space, speculation can be as volatile as the assets themselves. CryptoQuant’s analysis provides a much-needed anchor. By comparing past price cycles to current market conditions, investors can gain greater insight into Bitcoin’s resilience and the motivations of holders.
In the new round of trends, which sectors are worth paying attention to?
Web3 Section
As one of the infrastructures of Web3, storage is not an emerging sector, but compared with public chains, the development of storage is relatively stable. It should be noted that expectations for storage tokens should not be too high, because there has been exaggerated hype in this field.
DID is a supporting facility of Web3, which is used to provide identification for participants. For example, domain name projects such as ENS and ID can also play an identification role, raising the participation threshold and marking users by purchasing domain names. In addition, the Web3 education ecosystem has not yet been fully developed.
X to earn (X2E): This is a form of Web3 application. It should be noted that the dividends of such projects are relatively high in the early stage of participation, and if you participate later, you may lose money. Therefore, you should be very cautious when investing in tokens in the X to earn sector, because in the long run, tokens may continue to be released.
LSD
Among all protocols, the TVL (total locked value) of the LSD protocol is the highest. Whether it is Layer2 or Layer1, LSD is their common infrastructure. Currently, Lido (LDO) is the protocol with the highest TVL, and its TVL is 2.5 times that of the second-ranked MakerDAO. $LDO
NFT Trading Market
In addition to Opensea, Blur is one of the most influential NFT trading markets.
Compared with Opensea, Blur is more friendly to traders, while the other platform is more favorable to creators. At present, Blur's transaction volume is still the highest, and the gas fees consumed and the number of transaction wallet addresses are second only to Opensea.
