1️⃣ Market decline and sell-off phenomenon: Although Bitcoin ETFs and institutional investors have shown buying interest, the market has not improved and has continued to fall. There must be more complex factors behind this.
2️⃣ Selling by old holders: Old holders (OGs) are the main sellers, and the amount of Bitcoin they hold far exceeds the sum of all ETFs, even ten times more. During the bull market, OGs usually sell part of their Bitcoin to realize gains.
3️⃣ Impact of Paper Bitcoin: Investors now have the option of buying paper Bitcoin that is not backed by actual Bitcoin. This has led to the emergence of so-called synthetic Bitcoins on the market, provided by traders who have no actual Bitcoin to sell and who only rely on the US dollar to back their transactions.
4️⃣ Market Focus: The 2022 bear market is largely due to the massive increase in paper Bitcoin, while spot Bitcoin holders have not sold off on a large scale. In the current bull market, the rise of paper Bitcoin is in sharp contrast to the stagnation of spot prices.
5️⃣ Importance of comprehensive analysis: Investors cannot simply focus on the purchase volume of ETFs. On-chain data, derivative market data, and price technical indicators are all important tools for assessing market supply and demand. Combining this information for analysis is an art, not a pure quantitative science.
Alan Knitowski mentioned that the concept of a 21 million bitcoin supply cap is becoming less important because the ability to short bitcoin with USD collateral is limited. This also explains why the SEC tends to favor futures ETFs over spot ETFs, which is an ongoing regulatory war. #BTC☀ #BNB #上寨币行情 #牛市 #降息
