Crypto asset manager Bitwise predicts that Ethereum spot ETFs will accumulate over $15 billion in net inflows within the first 18 months of hitting the U.S. market. This forecast is based on the performance of Bitcoin ETFs, which have gathered $14.4 billion since their launch five months ago.

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan's estimate is based on Bitcoin's ETF figures and the overall market size of Ethereum in comparison to Bitcoin. Currently, Bitcoin's market cap is $1.26 trillion, compared to Ethereum's $432 billion, implying a 3:1 asset ratio.

Hougan expects that the $56 billion currently locked within U.S. Bitcoin ETFs will rise to $100 billion by the end of 2025. By this logic, Ethereum ETPs will need $35 billion in AUM to reach parity. However, this figure doesn't imply $35 billion of inflows as Grayscale's Ethereum Trust (ETHE) will immediately convert into an ETF at launch day with $10 billion from its outset.

Considering these factors, the estimate for Ethereum ETF inflows is reduced to $18 billion. However, the Ethereum basis trade is not reliably profitable for non-staked assets, meaning Ethereum ETFs won't garner demand for this reason. Therefore, the flow estimate is further reduced to $15 billion.

Despite the reduction, with $15 billion of inflows, the Ethereum ETF would be a historic success. Hougan remains optimistic, stating that "ETH is one of the best-performing assets of all time, and in my honest opinion its best days are ahead of it."