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Must Read this article**Bitwise Expert Says Bitcoin’s Famous Four-Year Cycle Might Be Over – Here’s Why** Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, a major crypto asset manager, recently shared a bold take: Bitcoin’s well-known four-year boom-and-bust cycle could be a thing of the past. In a social media thread, he explained why the crypto market’s future might look very different from its history. ### What Was the “Four-Year Cycle”? For years, Bitcoin and the broader crypto market followed a pattern. Roughly every four years, prices would surge for three years, then crash in the fourth. These cycles were often tied to big events, like the 2014 collapse of Mt. Gox (a major crypto exchange) or the 2018 regulatory crackdown on risky crypto projects. Hougan explained that these cycles usually started with a spark – like new technology or investor excitement – that drove prices up. Over time, speculation and risky bets (like borrowing money to invest) would push the market too high, leading to a crash. After the dust settled, a new spark would start the cycle again. ### Why Things Might Change Now Hougan believes the latest cycle began in March 2023, when Grayscale Investments won a key legal battle against the SEC over Bitcoin ETFs (funds that let people invest in Bitcoin without owning it directly). This victory signaled that Bitcoin ETFs would likely be approved, which finally happened in January 2024. These ETFs brought billions of dollars into crypto, mostly from big investors like banks and pension funds. Under the old four-year pattern, the market would crash again around 2026. But Hougan thinks two big factors could break the cycle: 1. **Institutional Investors Are Here to Stay** Big players like Wall Street firms are entering crypto, but they’re moving slowly. “They’re like giant ships, not speedboats,” Hougan said. Their long-term plans could stabilize the market, making crashes less severe. 2. **Governments Are Taking Crypto Seriously** The U.S. government now sees crypto as a “national priority” and even hinted at creating a “national crypto stockpile.” This shift means clearer rules and more confidence in the market. ### What’s Next? Hougan admits the market could still see ups and downs. New investors might get too excited, or people might take on too much debt. But he thinks any future dips will be “shorter and less painful” than past crashes. “We’re in a new era for crypto,” he said. “It’s going to be an exciting few years.” In short, while crypto will always be volatile, the days of predictable four-year cycles might be over – thanks to Wall Street, ETFs, and changing government attitudes. #BitcoinForecast #BTC #BTC走势分析 #news_update #2025Prediction

Must Read this article

**Bitwise Expert Says Bitcoin’s Famous Four-Year Cycle Might Be Over – Here’s Why**

Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, a major crypto asset manager, recently shared a bold take: Bitcoin’s well-known four-year boom-and-bust cycle could be a thing of the past. In a social media thread, he explained why the crypto market’s future might look very different from its history.

### What Was the “Four-Year Cycle”?
For years, Bitcoin and the broader crypto market followed a pattern. Roughly every four years, prices would surge for three years, then crash in the fourth. These cycles were often tied to big events, like the 2014 collapse of Mt. Gox (a major crypto exchange) or the 2018 regulatory crackdown on risky crypto projects.

Hougan explained that these cycles usually started with a spark – like new technology or investor excitement – that drove prices up. Over time, speculation and risky bets (like borrowing money to invest) would push the market too high, leading to a crash. After the dust settled, a new spark would start the cycle again.

### Why Things Might Change Now
Hougan believes the latest cycle began in March 2023, when Grayscale Investments won a key legal battle against the SEC over Bitcoin ETFs (funds that let people invest in Bitcoin without owning it directly). This victory signaled that Bitcoin ETFs would likely be approved, which finally happened in January 2024. These ETFs brought billions of dollars into crypto, mostly from big investors like banks and pension funds.

Under the old four-year pattern, the market would crash again around 2026. But Hougan thinks two big factors could break the cycle:

1. **Institutional Investors Are Here to Stay**
Big players like Wall Street firms are entering crypto, but they’re moving slowly. “They’re like giant ships, not speedboats,” Hougan said. Their long-term plans could stabilize the market, making crashes less severe.

2. **Governments Are Taking Crypto Seriously**
The U.S. government now sees crypto as a “national priority” and even hinted at creating a “national crypto stockpile.” This shift means clearer rules and more confidence in the market.

### What’s Next?
Hougan admits the market could still see ups and downs. New investors might get too excited, or people might take on too much debt. But he thinks any future dips will be “shorter and less painful” than past crashes.

“We’re in a new era for crypto,” he said. “It’s going to be an exciting few years.”

In short, while crypto will always be volatile, the days of predictable four-year cycles might be over – thanks to Wall Street, ETFs, and changing government attitudes.
#BitcoinForecast #BTC #BTC走势分析 #news_update #2025Prediction

khurram_Gujjar

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Crypto Fear & Greed Index Now : 72 (Greed)
29-01-25

$BTC #BitcoinForecast

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