BTC Anylysis:Over the past 48 hours,Bitcoin (BTC) price dropped 13% from its new all-time high of $73,835 to briefly trade near $60,000. The correction was caused by overheated market conditions in what analysts have christened a “pre-halving retrace” ahead of the Bitcoin halving event that is roughly 30 days away.
However, a report by CryptoQuant shows that the Bitcoin bull cycle is not over, given the relatively low level of investment flows from new investors and price valuation metrics still below levels seen in past market tops.
The on-chain data analytic firm’s Weekly Crypto Report reveals that 48% of Bitcoin investment is coming from short-term holders. The “bull cycle typically ends with 84%-92% of investment” from these new investors, according to CryptoQuant analysts.
“The Bitcoin bull cycle is still far from over, as shown by the relatively low level of new investment flows.”
Bitcoin realized cap - OTXO age bands percentage. Source: CryptoQuant
The chart above also reveals that this metric has “reached levels similar to mid-2019 (52%) when Bitcoin also experienced a meaningful correction,” something that short-term traders should watch out for.
The CryptoQuant report also revealed that valuation metrics are still below levels consistent with past market tops.
“CryptoQuant P&L Index is still outside a market top zone (red area) and above the index's 1-year moving average.”
Bitcoin: CryptoQuant profit and loss (PnL) index. Source: CryptoQuant
Related: BTC price dip hits 17.5% as week’s Bitcoin ETF net outflows near $500M
CryptoQuant’s PnL index is made up of three on-chain indicators that show the profitability of Bitcoin. The index has previously indicated that the crypto market will enter a bull cycle in 2024. However, the chart above shows that the current level is slightly below those observed when the market peaked during the 2013, 2017 and 2021 bull runs.
The Bitcoin halving eveom the metrics discussed above, the upcoming Bitcoin halving event is a major driver expected to bolster BTC price,
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