#Bitcoin quotes have reached their highest point since the beginning of the year, breaking key barriers around $28,000, both from a technical (200D MA, 200W MA) and on-chain perspective (coin "cost basis"). This analysis comes from #Glassnode
The breakthrough of these levels has shifted a significant portion of the supply into a positive position, forming the foundation for a renewed upward trend in 2023. These surpassed metrics will serve as crucial benchmarks in the coming weeks, as explained by specialists.
The technical analysis of digital gold is depicted below. The following chart illustrates Bitcoin's price dynamics, along with the True Market Mean Price indicator developed in collaboration with ARK Invest ($29,820).
This indicator reflects the average price at which the last transactions took place, including those that changed hands within a specific timeframe. Historically, Bitcoin has traded half of its "life" above this level and the other half below it. The current price has also exceeded the "traditional cost basis" of coins acquired by speculators. Their "paper" profit has reached around 20%. The chart below shows the #MVRV ratio for this market segment, with red indicating periods when the market traded below the base cost and green indicating periods when it traded above it. A similar pattern emerges with the #SOPR indicator, which characterizes the profitability of spent coins. Just like with MVRV, speculators have started closing their positions in a "positive" territory.
Due to a relatively smaller slump compared to 2021-2022, short-term investors did not experience the same panic and fear typical of the previous bear market in 2022. Analysts view this as a sign of speculators' resilience.
Overlaying the two aforementioned metrics allowed analysts to create an oscillator that reflects investor confidence. At present, the #indicator

has rebounded to a neutral level and is on the verge of entering a positive zone, where the "cost basis" of spent coins will surpass that of Bitcoins held in wallets. The rally in digital gold has put coins held by hodlers into a positive position. Their share has increased from 57% to 81%. In absolute terms, this figure has risen by 4.7 million BTC, equivalent to 24% of the current supply. These metrics provide insight into how many coins were added to wallets within the $27,000 to $35,000 range. The surge in prices did not trigger a strong reaction among long-term investors. The number of coins they own reached a new all-time high of 14.899 million BTC. The ongoing growth of this metric indicates that a larger supply is maturing into "hodler conditions" than is being spent.
Approximately 29.6% of the supply is held at a loss - a historically high value for this metric, considering the strong upward trend in the market since the 2022 lows.
"This suggests that hodlers may be more 'seasoned' and 'resilient' compared to previous cycles," experts noted. The driver of the improved sentiment is the expectation of Bitcoin ETF approval.
On October 23, BlackRock's proposed instrument, iShares Bitcoin Trust, appeared on the DTCC asset list for which the company provides post-trade, clearing, and settlement services.
Recall that Matrixport analysts predicted the rise of digital gold to $42,000-56,000 if the product is approved. CryptoQuant received figures of $50,000-73,000.
Earlier, Glassnode experts, based on an assessment of capital movement between hodlers and speculators, concluded that the current structure of the first cryptocurrency market is similar to the recovery phase after periods of bear dominance in 2016 and 2019.

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Here is a detailed description of each technical indicator along with when to use them:
1. MA (Moving Average)
What it is:
MA is a moving average indicator that calculates the average price of a stock over a specific period. It helps to identify the general market trend (uptrend or downtrend).
When to use:
MA is used for analyzing long-term and short-term trends. It helps understand price action and determine the trend’s consistency.
2. EMA (Exponential Moving Average)
What it is:
EMA is an improved moving average that gives more weight to recent prices, helping to detect price momentum changes faster than the standard MA.
When to use:
EMA is mainly used in short-term trading to quickly observe price changes. It is particularly effective for intraday trading and identifying short-term entry and exit signals.
3. BOLL (Bollinger Bands)
What it is:
Bollinger Bands consist of a moving average with two bands around it. These bands measure price volatility, indicating if the price is overbought or oversold.
When to use:
Bollinger Bands are used to determine overbought and oversold conditions. When the price reaches the upper band, it indicates overbought, while the lower band suggests oversold.
4. SAR (Parabolic SAR)
What it is:
Parabolic SAR is an indicator displayed as dots above or below the price, which signals the direction of the trend. It helps detect potential trend reversals.
When to use:
SAR is effective for trend traders, helping them to identify potential trend reversals and determine the right time to enter or exit trades.
5. MAVOL (Moving Average Volume)
What it is:
MAVOL calculates the moving average of volume or trade quantity, helping to understand how volume changes over time.
When to use:
MAVOL is used to analyze trading volume, helping understand market sentiment and strength. When volume increases with price, it indicates trend stability.
6. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)
What it is:
MACD is a powerful momentum indicator that identifies the difference (convergence and divergence) between two moving averages, helping to assess trend strength.
When to use:
MACD is primarily used to understand trend strength and price momentum. It is effective in detecting bullish and bearish signals as well as trend reversals.
7. KDJ (K-D-J Indicator)
What it is:
KDJ is a trading indicator that analyzes the latest price. It’s mainly used in stock markets and has a J value that indicates trend reversals.
When to use:
KDJ is primarily used in stock trading when quick entry or exit signals are needed, especially for identifying overbought or oversold conditions.
8. RSI (Relative Strength Index)
What it is:
RSI is an oscillator that determines overbought and oversold conditions based on price movements. It ranges from 0 to 100.
When to use:
RSI is used to identify overbought and oversold conditions in the market. An RSI above 70 indicates overbought, while below 30 suggests oversold.
9. WR (Williams %R)
What it is:
Williams %R is a momentum indicator that measures the current price’s position relative to the highest high. It helps detect overbought and oversold conditions.
When to use:
WR is useful in trading strategies, especially when the market is overbought or oversold, signaling possible trend reversals.
10. StochRSI (Stochastic Relative Strength Index)
What it is:
StochRSI is an oscillator combining RSI and Stochastic, providing more precise overbought and oversold signals.
When to use:
StochRSI is used to determine the beginning or end of a trend. It gives clearer signals for overbought and oversold conditions.
Note:
When using these indicators, consider market conditions, personal strategy, and risk tolerance. Combining multiple indicators can yield more reliable insights.
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