If the U.S. Federal Reserve slashes interest rates for the first time in four years later this month, bitcoin analysts at Bitfinex forecast the price of the world’s largest cryptocurrency may potentially drop by up to 20%.
“This is because the positive correlation with traditional asset classes, such as U.S. equities, indicate that global economic conditions will continue to influence bitcoin’s price for now,” the firm told TheStreet Crypto.
Bitcoin {{BTC}} could drop as much as 15%-20% following a September rate cut if the easing cycle is paired with a recession, wrote the team. That would translate to a bottom somewhere in the $40,000-$50,000 range.
"Typically, rate cuts are perceived as bullish catalysts for risk assets," they wrote. "A 25 basis point rate cut would likely mark the beginning of a standard rate-cutting cycle, which could lead to long-term price appreciation for BTC as recession fears ease. Such a move would signal the Fedʼs confidence in the economyʼs resilience, reducing the likelihood of a severe downturn."
Alternatively, a larger 50 basis point cut might result in a short-lived 5%-8% spike for BTC only to be erased by growing concerns of an oncoming recession and more pain for asset prices, Bitfinex added.
"This would mirror past instances where aggressive rate cuts initially boosted asset prices, only for the gains to be tempered by rising economic uncertainties," the authors said. #BTC☀ #fedinterest #intrestrate #PowellAtJacksonHole #Influencer

Understanding the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate and its impact on the cryptocurrency market involves analyzing how changes in monetary policy can influence various aspects of the financial landscape, including investor behavior, liquidity, and overall market sentiment. Here’s a detailed overview:
What is the Fed Interest Rate?
The Federal Reserve sets the federal funds rate, which is the interest rate at which banks lend to each other overnight. This rate influences other interest rates in the economy, such as those for loans, mortgages, and savings. The Fed adjusts this rate to either stimulate the economy (by lowering rates) or to control inflation (by raising rates).
How Does the Fed Interest Rate Affect Traditional Markets?
Borrowing Costs:Higher Rates: Increase borrowing costs, reduce consumer spending and business investment, slow down economic growth.Lower Rates: Decrease borrowing costs, boost consumer spending and business investment, stimulate economic growth.Investment Flows:Higher Rates: Attract investment into fixed-income securities (e.g., bonds), as they offer better returns compared to riskier assets.Lower Rates: Push investors towards equities and other higher-risk investments in search of better returns.Inflation Control:Higher Rates: Help reduce inflation by curbing spending and borrowing.Lower Rates: Can increase inflation by encouraging spending and borrowing.
Impact on the Cryptocurrency Market
Investor Behavior:Risk Appetite: When interest rates are low, investors tend to seek higher returns in riskier assets, including cryptocurrencies. Conversely, higher interest rates can make traditional assets more attractive, reducing demand for cryptocurrencies.Speculation: Lower interest rates can lead to increased speculation in the crypto market as cheap borrowing costs encourage more investment into high-risk assets.Liquidity:Low Rates: Provide abundant liquidity, which can flow into the cryptocurrency market, driving up prices.High Rates: Tighten liquidity, potentially reducing the inflow of capital into the crypto market, leading to price declines.Market Sentiment:Economic Outlook: If the Fed raises rates due to a strong economy, it might have a mixed effect on crypto. While higher rates are generally bearish, a strong economy can boost overall market confidence, potentially supporting crypto prices.Inflation Hedge: Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin are often seen as a hedge against inflation. If the Fed raises rates to combat inflation, the perceived need for an inflation hedge might decrease, impacting demand for cryptocurrencies.Dollar Strength:Higher Rates: Typically strengthen the US dollar. A stronger dollar can reduce the appeal of cryptocurrencies, especially those viewed as alternatives to fiat currencies.Lower Rates: Can weaken the US dollar, making cryptocurrencies more attractive as a store of value.
Recent Trends and Observations
Correlation with Tech Stocks: Cryptocurrencies have shown a growing correlation with tech stocks, which are also sensitive to interest rate changes. Higher rates often pressure tech stocks, and similar trends are observed in the crypto market.Market Volatility: Announcements and speculations regarding Fed interest rate changes often lead to increased volatility in the crypto market as traders react to potential impacts on liquidity and investor sentiment.
Conclusion
The Fed interest rate is a significant factor influencing the broader financial environment and, by extension, the cryptocurrency market. Understanding its impact can help investors make informed decisions, balancing their portfolios to navigate periods of monetary policy shifts effectively. While cryptocurrencies are influenced by a myriad of factors, the Fed's monetary policy remains a key driver of market dynamics
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